The second leg of the UEFA Champions League round of 16 gets underway on Tuesday when Borussia Dortmund hosts Tottenham and Ajax travels to Spain to face Real Madrid. Both games kick off at 3 p.m. ET. Tottenham takes a commanding 3-0 lead into Tuesday's match, while Real Madrid holds a slight 2-1 advantage over Ajax. Oddsmakers list Real Madrid at -165 odds to win (risk $165 to win $100), while Ajax is going off at +400 (risk $100 to win $400). The draw is +330, and the over-under for total goals scored is 3.5. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund is a slender money line favorite at -110, while the over-under is 3. Before you make any Champions League picks for the round of 16, you need to see what European football expert David Sumpter has to say.
Sumpter is an applied mathematician and author of "Soccermatics," a book that explains how math works inside the sport. Along with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.
The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In the three seasons since its inception, Soccerbot is up an incredible 2,000 percent on Premier League picks.
And the model is off to a blistering start in the Champions League round of 16. It made some huge calls during the first leg, which included Paris Saint-Germain (+205) over Manchester United, AS Roma (-100) over FC Porto, Tottenham (+110) over Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid (-120) over Ajax. Anyone who has followed it is up big.
Now, Sumpter has set his sights on Tuesday's round of 16 matches. We can tell you the model is leaning toward the under in Real Madrid vs. Ajax, but its much stronger play is on the money line, saying one side has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model has factored in that Real Madrid will be without star defender and captain Sergio Ramos on Tuesday. Ramos picked up a controversial yellow card in the first leg of this tilt, which has since been raised to a two-game ban by UEFA's Discipline Committee. However, despite losing its star defender to suspension, Real Madrid will enter Tuesday's match full of confidence, having won each of its past seven games against Ajax across all competitions.
But just because Real Madrid has had success against Ajax doesn't mean it will secure a victory on Tuesday and provide value on the money line.
The model also knows Ajax features an explosive offense that has been red-hot since suffering a 2-1 defeat to Real Madrid on Feb. 13. In fact, the Dutch side has scored 13 goals in its past three games, while conceding just one during that span. Ajax's attack is led by Dusan Tadic, who's scored 16 goals in 23 league appearances this season.
So which sides should you back on Tuesday? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see which Champions League teams you need to be all over on Tuesday, all from an expert who created a model that's returned a 2,000 percent profit on the bookmakers' closing odds.
