The Orange Bowl features two blue-blood programs in Florida State and Michigan that had College Football Playoff aspirations coming into the season but both came up just short. Still, they finish the year in a New Year's Six bowl game -- and just so happen to be playing each other.
If both teams can find motivation for this game, it has the chance to be one of the best of the bowl season. The Wolverines come in as seven-point favorites over the Seminoles, but Florida State closed the season strong with four straight wins and a tight three-point loss to Clemson. Michigan has to dust itself off after two losses in the final three games by a combined four points to keep the Wolverines from being playoff bound.
Players to watch
Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State: Cook will have the difficult task of finding running room against the 13th ranked rush defense in the country, but for Florida State to pull off the upset, the Seminoles star back has to be effective. He's had great games against high level defensive competition this season (189 yards against Clemson and 153 yards against Florida) but also had some struggles (54 yards against Louisville and 65 yards against NC State). Cook will need a strong performance from his offensive line, but if he can get over 100 yards in this game on a relatively efficient number of carries, the Seminoles will be in good shape.
Wilton Speight, QB, Michigan: The Michigan offense desperately needs a healthy Speight in this game. He grit through the Ohio State game and nearly led the Wolverines to a victory, but it was clear that he wasn't at full strength. When Speight was healthy, Michigan's offense was downright dynamic. Against a Florida State defense that's allowed 300-plus yards passing on four occasions this season, the Wolverines will want a passing attack at full strength to try and take advantage of the opportunities the Seminoles' secondary will offer down the field.
Prediction
Florida State has faced two top quality teams this season in Louisville and Clemson, losing both games but in wildly different fashions. The Seminoles were boat-raced by Louisville and Lamar Jackson in a 63-20 loss, but against Clemson, they kept it tight throughout in a 37-34 loss at home. While I think Michigan is the better team, this is a Florida State team that improved over the latter half of the season, and I expect this game to look a lot like that Clemson loss.
After blowing nearly every opponent out for the first nine games of the season, Michigan has found itself in tight games in the final three, winning only one in a 20-10 game in the snow against Indiana. If the Wolverines can open up the passing game with a healthier Speight than we saw against Ohio State, I think they'll come out on top in a close fought, lower-scoring game. However, the full touchdown spread feels like just a bit too much for Michigan the way it's closed the season, so I'll lean on the 'Noles to cover. Pick: Florida State +7.5
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan -7.5 |
