At 30 years old and with nine seasons already under his belt, nobody expects huge numbers from DeSean Jackson in 2017.
But you might want to start expecting them from some of his new teammates.
Jackson and the Buccaneers have reportedly agreed to a free-agent deal, creating a talented and very dangerous receiving corps for Jameis Winston and a contending offense in Tampa Bay for Fantasy owners to focus on.
He’s fast, he stretches the field and he can break games open with one play. He’s also known for being inconsistent, injury prone and occasionally disruptive.
But defensive coordinators know him as a pest, and he’ll be even harder for them to account for playing across from Mike Evans instead of someone like Pierre Garcon.
In five seasons when Jackson has played with a receiver with 100-plus targets, including each of the last three, his per-game averages were 6.7 targets, 3.7 receptions, 69.7 yards and effectively one score every three games.
Lay it out over 16 games and it equates to a 60-catch, 1,100-yard, five-touchdown campaign, which is just about what he’s delivered in 2014 and 2016 when he played 15 games. It’s not an unfair expectation for Jackson provided he stays healthy, which is always an issue for him.
The quarterback situation shouldn’t bug you. According to Pro Football Focus, Winston’s completed 45 of 133 passes of 20-plus yards in two seasons, which is basically one of every three tries, for 30.6 yards per completion (not per attempt) and 16 touchdowns. That’s not terrible, and it also includes passes thrown to guys like Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Freddie Martino -- not guys like Jackson.
Overall, your perception of Jackson shouldn’t change too much. Even with a hint of optimism based on who he’s playing with, he’s ultimately the boom-or-bust wideout he’s always been. It’s impossible to believe in him as anything more than a No. 3 Fantasy receiver. Round 8 is the perfect time to draft him.
Jackson’s arrival will make everything easier for Winston. The deep ball and screen-pass game will be an option for him on a regular basis, as will lesser coverage tilted toward Evans. And if Evans and Jackson draw the most attention, just imagine how frequently Winston will find underneath routes by his running backs and tight ends wide open.
The best part about all of this is that Winston has topped 4,000 yards and come close to 30 total touchdowns in each of his first two seasons without Jackson. This upgrade should push him closer to 4,300 yards and over the 30-touchdown hump. If not for a tricky schedule that will include games against the Giants, Packers, Vikings, Patriots and of course the Panthers and Falcons, we’d talk about Winston getting in the 4,500-yard, 35-plus score range.
Nonetheless, Winston is worth drafting as a Fantasy starter. Best of all, you should be able to get him later in drafts -- though chances are he’ll go before Round 10 in 10- and 12-team formats since he’ll be viewed as better than a streaming passer.
Don’t think for a nanosecond that Jackson is going to “destroy” Evans’ Fantasy value. Will Jackson take away targets? Of course. But Evans had 173 targets in 2016 and has averaged 148 targets per season. That number shouldn’t shrivel much, even with Jackson coming aboard.
Evans’ touchdowns also aren’t at serious risk either. Jackson has played with quality outside receivers before and has seen them rack up touchdowns. Heck, even Riley Cooper had eight touchdowns in Philly in 2013. Evans remains a big red-zone target for Winston -- that won’t change.
Evans remains a quality No. 1 Fantasy receiver. He’s the big dog in the Tampa Bay passing game, not DeSean. You’ll see Evans get taken in late Round 1.
The thinking is that if the Bucs don’t add competition this offseason, Brate will have a shot at matching his touchdowns from a year ago and exceeding his other numbers. Tight ends have certainly benefitted from Jackson’s presence before, and historically they can be attractive short-area targets when defenses are forced to play deep.
Winston has a clear track record of leaning on his tight ends, which doesn’t hurt things for Brate. The Harvard grad will make for a good Top 100 pick in Fantasy drafts this summer.
