The NHL had a special year in 2015-16, and with several young talents expected to erupt in the upcoming season (Connor McDavid, anyone?), there are plenty of reasons to be excited for autumn to come. I'm not here to tell you who will have a breakout campaign, however. Instead, here are eight players you should consider avoiding on Draft Day.
Let's dive in:
Busts
Jordan Staal, C, Carolina Hurricanes
Staal played in all 82 contests this past season, leading to his best statistical output since his days as a Penguin. The 27-year-old tied for second in points among Hurricanes and surprisingly led the team with a plus-6 rating (no, the 'Canes weren't a good team). Now that we've given him props for last year, it's time to rain on Staal's parade. Despite the public perception that Staal is a productive NHL center, he's been horribly inconsistent offensively from season to season, as he's been on the every-other-year plan for the past seven campaigns and has only cleared 40 points in consecutive seasons once in his 10-year career. Notching 24 points in 2014-15 naturally pushed the forward to double his output this past season, and even that fell short of 50 points, a mark he's reached only once. If history repeats itself -- which it has with Staal -- a down season should be expected. There's no reason to reach for the brand name here, especially with young pivots Victor Rask and Teuvo Teravainen ready to push him for minutes.
Jonathan Drouin, C/RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
First step: Don't give in to the hype. Drouin -- seemingly out of nowhere -- exploded for five goals, nine helpers and 14 PIM during last year's playoffs, quickly turning into a safe option for production in Daily Fantasy. The 21-year-old's surprising postseason run has caused many observers to overlook what was still a problematic campaign with the Lightning overall. Indeed, the 2013 No. 3 pick was not shy in voicing his frustrations during the season, requesting a trade before ultimately being demoted to the minors and finishing the NHL regular season with just 10 points in 21 outings. But with the team suffering a plethora of injuries -- including Ryan Callahan and that Steven Stamkos fellow -- Drouin was pushed into duty for lack of alternatives. Yes, he flourished in that opportunity, but the winger will need to prove he belongs in a top-six role for a longer span before we can trust him as a starter in standard formats, especially with health no longer a concern for the Bolts' forwards. Exercise caution with Drouin on Draft Day unless you can afford to stash him.
Suter has risen sharply in the blue-line rankings due to last season's career-high 51 points on eight goals and 43 assists. While there's a big gap between elite defensemen like Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns versus the rest of the pack, it's hard to spend high picks on safe floors rather than upside. The 31-year-old Suter's ceiling is about 50 points, and it wouldn't be surprising at all to see him drop back to his typical level of approximately 40. The No. 7 pick in the 2003 draft has failed to reach double-digit tallies even once in his 11 seasons, and has only surpassed 40 helpers once (last year). If you're looking for the Wisconsin native to make up for it in PIM and hits, unfortunately, he's below average at best in both categories. Suter wasn't shy in his last campaign, firing toward net a career-high 188 times, but only converting 4.3 percent. Most of his damage came on the power play -- three markers and 18 assists in 3:54 of ice time -- but as you can probably tell, he's not primarily an offensive weapon. The veteran is a safe bet to flirt with 40 points (he averages about 37 per campaign), but we're looking for more from a top-10 blueliner.
David Backes, C, Boston Bruins
Backes joins a crowded center position in Boston, where stud Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci (offseason hip surgery) lay claim to the top lines (at least for now). The 32-year-old's best season was back in 2010-11, when he lit the lamp 31 times and equaled that in assists, sporting a stellar plus-32 rating. The 2003 second-round pick took a step back this past campaign, notching just 45 points, his lowest full-season total since 2007-08. Worse, he only notched 83 PIM, marking his lowest-ever full-season total in that category. Despite the fact that he's rarely missed a contest during his career, Backes' playing time will almost certainly take a dip unless Krejci struggles to return effectively. With the depth at center, the Minnesota native falls outside the top 25, but he could make me eat my words -- after all, he joins last year's fifth-ranked offense and could potentially return to right wing, where the Bruins are shallower. I'll still take my chances elsewhere.
Overrated
Pekka Rinne, G, Nashville Predators
Rinne won't hurt your Fantasy team, so don't let this deter you from drafting him. However, if you're looking for a top-10 netminder, you could be disappointed. Nashville ranked 17th in goals against last year, and the 33-year-old sported a 2.48 GAA and .908 save percentage. Diving deeper, the Finn registered a .916 save percentage at even strength (34th among netminders who played at least 30 games) and a rather poor .852 in special-teams situations (36th). The guy still got 34 wins -- which is expected when you take a gander at the Preds' powerful offensive attack - and could easily reach that total again. But with everything considered, Rinne is right outside my top 10.
Evander Kane, LW, Buffalo Sabres
Remember that time Kane told the world he was aiming to score 40 or 50 goals this past season? Yeah, he brought this on himself. In defense of the 24-year-old, he did battle numerous injuries and off-ice issues. However, the winger suited up in 65 games and came up with 20 tallies, far short of the aforementioned goal (no pun intended). The 2009 No. 4 pick has never appeared in all 82 contests and has only surpassed 70 twice in his seven-year career, leaving owners scrambling when he can't lace up the skates. There's no denying his potential -- or drive, for that matter, considering he launched 271 shots on net last season -- but until he proves he can stay healthy, hitting 60 points for the first time in his career (or even 50, since he's only done that once) remains wishful thinking. Kane has some work to do before he's in the conversation to be a top-25 forward, so don't draft him as one.
Patric Hornqvist, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins
In his second season as a Penguin, Hornvqvist notched 22 goals, 29 assists and a plus-15 rating, leaving the winger at 51 points for a second straight year. However, 2014-15's total came in just 64 games as opposed to last season's 82. The 29-year-old was also quiet in the postseason, totaling nine tallies and four helpers, which looks pale in comparison to teammate Phil Kessel, who exploded for 22 points en route to a Stanley Cup win. The Swede saw a dip in minutes over the course of the season, as his average ice time fell from 17:39 the previous year to 16:51, which could be due to the emergence of Kessel down the stretch. Although his top-line spot is safe -- for now -- Hornqvist simply doesn't fit the profile of a top-10 right winger. The 2005 seventh-round pick always seems to be good for about 20 goals and 50 points, but that's fringe production in a lot of Fantasy formats. On the bright side, even he bucked his old trend of injury-shortened seasons by playing every game in 2015-16. You'll take the consistency, but from what we've seen so far, it's tough to imagine him emerging as a top option at his position.
Dion Phaneuf, D, Ottawa Senators
Following last year's change of scenery, Phaneuf is no longer his team's top blue-liner, as he now skates in the shadow of arguably the best defenseman in the game, Erik Karlsson. The 31-year-old appeared in 20 games with the Sens before his season was cut short by a lower-body injury; with a modest eight points over that span, the defenseman earned praise mostly for his leadership, which isn't a Fantasy category. A star during his first four years as a pro with Calgary (49, 50, 60 and 47 points in sequential order), Phaneuf has since played himself out of the top-25 conversation. The Alberta native has cracked 40 points just once since that four-year run, and his early-career goal-scoring prowess has evaporated. It's been a long time since he was in the conversation for the Norris Trophy, and now that he's on a young team with plenty of upcoming defensive talent, Phaneuf could quickly become that "veteran voice" and nothing more.
