Canelo vs. GGG odds: Expert pick from the model that nailed Mayweather-McGregor

Data scientist's model correctly predicted Mayweather-Canelo in 2013

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 16, 2017 at 6:50 pm ET • 1 min read

Gennady "GGG" Golovkin will face Canelo Alvarez in one of the most-anticipated boxing matches in recent years. And that means plenty of bets will pour in for Saturday night's big fight at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The odds are relatively close. Golovkin is a -140 favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, meaning you'd need to wager $140 to win $100. Canelo is a +120 underdog, meaning you'd win $120 from a $100 bet.

Before you make any bets on GGG vs. Canelo, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

Their computer model, developed by data scientist Walter Wojtowicz, called the 2013 fight between Canelo and Floyd Mayweather spot on. Mayweather won in a memorable 12-round majority decision, and that's exactly what the model predicted. Anyone who bet with it was well-rewarded and won all of their prop bets.

Their model has nailed every one of Floyd Mayweather's fights since it was developed in 2011. In all but one of those fights, it closely pegged the margin of victory. That means it knew exactly how the fight would play out and how many rounds it would last.

The model also called Tyson Fury's huge upset of Wladimir Klitschko in November 2015. Fury was a 4/1 underdog in that fight, but won by unanimous decision.

According to the model, which factors in historical data, punch stats, and judges' tendencies and has been used by books to set odds and manage risk, GGG's best path to victory is a KO, while Canelo's best chance is to win by decision.

And GGG's best chance for a knockout or TKO will come in the second round, based on his history. Also watch out for rounds six, seven, and eight.

SportsLine's model also says GGG would be a much bigger favorite had he dominated his last two opponents like he normally does. GGG defeated Daniel Jacobs in March by unanimous decision and beat Kell Brook by TKO in the fifth round last September.