Fantasy Football Believe It or Not: Cut your 49ers? Add Josh Allen? Dump Andrew Luck?
Week 3 was a crazy one, Heath Cummings tells you what you should believe and what you shouldn't.
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What an incredible week of football. I mean, it's not great if you're in the business of predicting things, but the entertainment value was through the roof.
Unless you are a 49ers fan.
Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a knee injury towards the end of their game with the Chiefs, and the initial reports are not encouraging. Let's start with what that does to the rest of the Fantasy assets in San Francisco.
You can drop all of your 49ers.
With Garoppolo likely done for the season, things are. C.J. Beathard will be the starting quarterback, and that's not good news for anyone. The 49ers are going to struggle to move the ball and score points. Last year they only scored more than one touchdown twice in his six games. You can comfortably drop all of your 49ers now, this is going to be a debacle.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
Yes, you can comfortably drop all of the 49ers wide receivers. Marquise Goodwin might be the one exception, but it's really hard to believe he'll be anything more than a boom-or-bust flex in deep leagues. If you're still holding on to Pierre Garcon or Dante Pettis? Say goodbye. But I'm holding on to the running backs and George Kittle.
In Kittle's case this has more to do with the overall quality of the position, or the lack thereof. There simply isn't a tight end on the waiver wire in most leagues close to his talent, so let's see how he performs with Beathard. As for the running backs, Morris will still be the primary rusher and Breida the best pass-catcher. Beathard targeted Carlos Hyde 50 times in his six games last year.
It's officially time to start worrying about Andrew Luck.
The subject of Luck's shoulder strength has been a hot one at the start of this season. It was one thing when we were making assumptions about his career-low Y/A (5.3) and questioning whether that was because of his arm. It's quite another when the Colts bring in Jacoby Brissett to heave a last-second Hail Mary. There's no longer need for interpretation -- he doesn't have the same strength in his shoulder. The only question now is whether this is a permanent state, and how it affects his Fantasy value.
Verdict: Believe it.
I've been driving the Luck bandwagon, while also dismissing questions about the shoulder. It wasn't that I thought Luck looked like the same guy, it was that I didn't think it mattered because he was going to lead the league in pass attempts and be a volume producer at worst. That volume has largely been there, but it still hasn't led to good production. There are two reasons for this, and I'm not sure how to feel about either right now.
- The Colts defense has been much better than expected, which has let the Colts be more conservative on offense.
- The pass catchers have let Luck down; he could have easily had four touchdown passes on Sunday.
Because of my uncertainty on those two topics I'm not suggesting you need to drop Luck. I'm not even sure I'm ready to say you can't start him against a Texans defense that was just sliced and diced by Eli Manning. But it's definitely time to start considering it.
Tyler Boyd should should be owned in all leagues.
In a week that was full of No. 2 receivers outproducing the No. 1 on their own team, you may have missed Boyd's production. That may be because many of you thought he was actually the No. 3 receiver on this team, behind A.J. Green and John Ross. For the second week in a row, Boyd proved that isn't the case. Against the Panthers he caught six of seven targets for 132 yards and a touchdown. He's now a top-20 receiver on the season in both formats and he's only 28 percent owned. There were a lot of surprising performances in Week 3, but Boyd's is deserving of your attention when waivers run.
Verdict: Believe it.
Yes, missed parts of this game due to a groin injury, but this is about more than just Week 3. For the year, Boyd is a clear second on the team in targets, with 18.4 percent. He's caught 73 percent of those targets and averaged a team-best 16.6 yards per reception. He has the ability to get open, and he's shown good hands. It's the famed third year for Boyd, and he's having his breakout. Be thankful if no one noticed before you and go add him in your league.
You can trust Chris Carson as a starting running back.
Well, I guess Brian Schottenheimer was right. All the Seahawks had to do was run the ball a lot and they'd win. Of course, the causation may be reversed, but what really matters for Fantasy owners is that Pete Carroll's actions finally lived up to his words, and Carson was used like the lead running back they've been saying he is. Carson turned 32 carries in 102 yards and a touchdown on Sunday against a stout run defense. He even caught two passes for 22 yards as a cherry on top of the sundae. With the Seahawks giving him almost all of the work, you can finally trust him as a starting running back.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
The only thing you should be debating is whether you want to risk it one more week before selling high. The Seahawks defense got up for their first home game and shut down an anemic Cowboys attack. That's why Carson produced. While their offensive line was better, they still generated just 113 yards on 39 rush attempts. It won't be often Seattle has a game script like this, and when they don't Carson will go back to being a bad Fantasy running back. If you need him in Week 4 against Arizona, I could understand holding one more week, but it's a risk.
Josh Allen should be added in one-quarterback leagues.
Take your victory lap, Bills' fans. In what was arguably the biggest upset in more than a quarter of a century, the Buffalo Bills dismantled the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. The biggest reason was their defense, but Josh Allen would come in second. Allen completed 15-of-22 passes for 196 yards and a score. He ran for another 39 yards and two touchdowns. In a game where game script should have worked against him, Allen was a star. He should obviously be owned in all two-quarterback leagues, but it's also time to get him on your roster in a standard league.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
Nope. Not even as a backup. Go look at your waiver wire. You'll find better, more established quarterbacks than Allen. This was a very encouraging start for his owners in dynasty leagues and those in the two-QB format, but that's about it. He still has an awful offensive line and he's still surrounded by the worst supporting cast in football. That was a gutsy performance from Allen and the Bills, but we're going to have to see an encore at Lambeau before we start talking about actually using him in Fantasy.
So who should you sit and start? And what shocking QB could win you Week 4? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking QB finishes in the top 12 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
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