The 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday marks the beginning of the final month of the NASCAR regular season schedule. Only four races remain before the NASCAR playoffs begin, and this is the penultimate 400-mile speedway race in the regular season since the next two events are on road courses. Michael McDowell holds down the final playoff spot with 470 total points, but seven other drivers are within 70 points of that slot and they're all in the 2023 NASCAR at Michigan starting lineup. A win for any driver also clinches a playoff spot, so the action should be intense when the green flag drops at 2:30 p.m. ET from Michigan International Speedway.
The 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds list Denny Hamlin as the 13-2 favorite. Others high in the 2023 NASCAR at Michigan odds include Kyle Larson (7-1), Martin Truex Jr. (7-1), Kyle Busch (8-1) and William Byron (8-1). Before scouring the 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Michigan predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Michigan NASCAR picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). In Austin, it listed Tyler Reddick as one of its best values and he went on to win for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021.
All told, the model has nailed a whopping 13 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Michigan leaderboard.
Top 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 predictions
For the 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400, the model is high on Chase Elliott, even though he's a 15-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Michigan odds. Elliott has been battling his way back into the NASCAR playoff picture after missing six weeks due to a broken leg sustained during a March 3 snowboarding accident. He sits 20th in the NASCAR standings, 40 points shy of 16th.
Elliott has been consistent at Michigan in his career, finishing 11th or better in all but one of his 12 career starts. He has three runner-ups as well, so it seems like a matter of time before he breaks through with a win. With the combination of his track history and the urgency he faces to pile up points for the playoffs, Elliott is a strong play at 15-1 in the 2023 NASCAR at Michigan odds. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 starting lineup. Larson enters the weekend sitting eighth in the standings and has automatically qualified for the postseason with a pair of victories on the season.
But the champion two seasons ago hasn't run well of late, finishing 19th or worse in three of his last four starts. Since winning three consecutive races at Michigan in 2016 and 2017, Larson's average finishing position at the track has been 12th over the last six races and he's been 14th or worse in three of those starts. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Michigan picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 NASCAR at Michigan odds of 11-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the FireKeepers Casino 400 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Michigan odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 NASCAR at Michigan leaderboard, all from the model that already nailed seven winners in 2023.
2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds, drivers, lineup
See full 2023 NASCAR at Michigan picks at SportsLine
Denny Hamlin 13-2
Kyle Larson 7-1
Martin Truex Jr. 7-1
Kyle Busch 8-1
William Byron 8-1
Kevin Harvick 17-2
Christopher Bell 10-1
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Bubba Wallace 12-1
Tyler Reddick 12-1
Joey Logano 14-1
Chase Elliott 15-1
Ross Chastain 17-1
Ty Gibbs 18-1
Brad Keselowski 22-1
Alex Bowman 40-1
Daniel Suarez 45-1
Chris Buescher 50-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Erik Jones 125-1
A.J. Allmendinger 200-1
Austin Cindric 250-1
Ryan Preece 250-1
Chase Briscoe 300-1
Michael McDowell 300-1
Justin Haley 300-1
Austin Hill 400-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Corey Lajoie 750-1
Noah Gragson 750-1
Todd Gilliland 1500-1
Cole Custer 3000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Ty Dillon 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
