The 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series continues on Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway for the 2019 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500. Kyle Busch has made the top 10 in all six races so far this season and already has a pair of wins under his belt. He's starting in the middle of the 2019 NASCAR at Texas grid in 16th, but remains the 5-2 favorite for Sunday's 3 p.m. ET green flag drop. Brad Keselowski (7-2) is nipping at his heels after a dominant performance in which he led 449 of 500 laps at Martinsville last week and captured the checkered flag. Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick are also in prime position at 5-1 in the latest 2019 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 odds. The latest Fort Worth weather is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 50s. Before you commit to any 2019 NASCAR at Texas picks, read the top NASCAR predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account. 

The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It was also all over Kyle Busch as a top contender at the TicketGuardian 500, and four of the drivers in McClure's projected top five went on to top-five finishes at the Auto Club 400. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up. 

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Texas Motor Speedway are in his blood. His model simulated the 2019 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 10,000 times and the results were surprising. 

For the 2019 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500, we can tell you the model is high on Aric Almirola , who's going off as a long shot at 30-1 NASCAR at Texas odds.

Almirola already has five top-10 finishes so far this season and won the pole before an eighth-place finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway, which boasts a similar 1.5-mile track. Almirola and his Stewart Haas Racing Ford ran well late last season in Texas with an eighth-place finish. He'll have plenty of speed on Sunday with the way Fords have been running with the new aerodynamics package at speedways. 

Impressively, Almirola has finished in the top 10 in all three races this season using the 550 horsepower engine. He's a strong target for anyone gunning for a huge payday.

And a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the top Vegas favorites at 10-1, doesn't even crack the top five. Blaney has three consecutive top-five finishes coming into this race, but consistency has been an issue. He finished outside the top 20 in the two previous events on the NASCAR schedule.

Blaney owns a pair of top-five finishes at Texas, but also has finished outside the top 10 five times since the start of 2015.There are far better values in the 2019 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 lineup than the 10-1 premium you'll need to pay for him.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2019 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 odds of 25-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. 

So who wins the 2019 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest NASCAR at Texas odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard for the 2019 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Kyle Busch 5-2
Brad Keselowski 7-2
Joey Logano 5-1
Kevin Harvick 5-1
Martin Truex Jr. 7-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Jimmie Johnson 16-1
Kyle Larson 18-1
Denny Hamlin 25-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Kurt Busch 30-1
Clint Bowyer 30-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Chase Elliott 30-1