An extremely competitive regular season in the NASCAR Cup Series has led to the NASCAR Playoffs grid being mostly set after 25 races in 2021. So far 13 drivers have secured a playoff spot by virtue of winning at least one race, while two drivers -- Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick -- have already secured a playoff spot based on points.
That has left one precious spot on the playoff grid left, and one opportunity for one driver to qualify for the opportunity to compete for the Cup Series Championship in the upcoming weekend's Coke Zero Sugar 400 at the Daytona International Speedway. While two drivers are in a position to make the playoffs on points, the "Win and In" nature of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, combined with the level playing field of superspeedway racing, gives most of the Cup Series' full-time drivers a realistic chance to earn a berth.
Here is a breakdown of the drivers who are eligible to qualify for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, and how they can clinch a spot this weekend at Daytona.
Can clinch via points
If there is either a repeat winner or a win by a driver not eligible to qualify for the playoffs, the final spot will go to the driver who has the third-most points among non-winners. That driver would only need to finish the race with more points than the driver with the fourth-most points among non-winners.
- Tyler Reddick - If there is not a new winner, Reddick needs only to gain 31 points in order to qualify for the Playoffs. Reddick currently holds a 25 point advantage over the cutoff line.
- Austin Dillon - If there is no repeat winner, Austin Dillon will need help in order to make the playoffs on points, with the most realistic scenario being him earning significant Stage Points and a good finish while Reddick has trouble. Daytona may very well give Dillon a fighting chance, as he won the Daytona 500 in 2018 and finished third in this year's Great American Race.
Must win to clinch a playoff spot
Without a mathematical chance of making the Cup Series Playoffs on points, the following drivers must win at Daytona in order to secure a berth.
- Matt DiBenedetto - A crew chief change has done DiBenedetto good, as he has finished no worse than 11th in every race since Road America in July. DiBenedetto is a strong superspeedway racer, and was leading at Talladega at the white flag before an ill-advised move to the outside line cost him the win.
- Chris Buescher - Buescher had a solid first half of the 2021 season, but he has gradually become much quieter as the year has progressed. After scoring four Top 10s from March to May, Buescher has not had a Top 10 finish since finishing 8th in the Coca-Cola 600.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - Stenhouse came close to earning a berth with a second-place finish at Bristol, and his skills on superspeedways are especially noted. Both of Stenhouse's two career wins have come at Daytona and Talladega, and he finished second by inches to Ryan Blaney at Talladega a year ago.
- Ross Chastain - Chastain has turned it on since May, with two Top 5s and five Top 10s since Circuit of the Americas and a best finish of second at Nashville. Chastain finished 7th in the Daytona 500 and led 12 laps earlier this year at Talladega.
- Bubba Wallace - While Wallace and 23XI Racing have gone through first-year growing pains, the program's strength on superspeedways meshes well with Wallace's own abilities as a superspeedway racer. Wallace contended for wins at Daytona and Talladega last year before putting in strong performances this year, including a second place finish in his Duel qualifying race for the Daytona 500.
- Chase Briscoe - After toiling through much of his rookie year in Cup, Briscoe has begun to string together strong performances near crunch time for the Playoffs. Although he's never won on a superspeedway in NASCAR, Briscoe led 73 of 113 laps in an Xfinity Series race at Talladega last fall.
- Erik Jones - Jones has visited Victory Lane at Daytona twice in his career, earning his first career win in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 before winning the Busch Clash in 2020. At Talladega earlier this year, Jones led seven laps and was in the mix for a Top 10 finish before crashing on the last lap.
- Daniel Suarez - A hot start to the season for Suarez and Trackhouse Racing, highlighted by a fourth-place finish at Bristol, has turned to a rough stretch through the summer. From July onwards, accidents and mechanical failures have left Suarez with five finishes worse than 20th. However, Suarez has some superspeedway racing chops, as he led 19 laps in last year's Coke Zero Sugar 400 while driving for Gaunt Brothers Racing.
- Ryan Newman - While his superspeedway prowess has come to be overshadowed by a near-death experience in the 2020 Daytona 500, Newman remains a very capable driver on NASCAR's biggest and fastest tracks. Newman won the Daytona 500 in 2008 and narrowly lost a race at Talladega in 2019, and getting another chance at Daytona glory would vindicate him in an otherwise frustrating season. Newman has just one Top 5 and four Top 10s and is set to become a free agent at season's end.
- Ryan Preece - Ryan Preece has become a good superspeedway racer in Cup, as his best career finish was a third at Talladega and he has been in the mix to win all three Daytona 500s he has competed in. Preece's sixth-place finish in this year's 500 was the highlight of two Top 10s to start the year, but he only has one Top 10 since.
- Cole Custer - The sophomore slump has hit 2020's Rookie of the Year like a load of bricks, as Custer has had an awful season with just two Top 10 finishes and none since Dover in May. Two of Custer's best finishes this year have come on superspeedways, as he led a lap in the Daytona 500 before finishing 11th and finished 10th at Talladega.
- Anthony Alfredo - After not running a full season in either the Xfinity Series or Camping World Truck Series, Alfredo has faced a steep learning curve in his Cup rookie campaign. Despite that, he finished a carer-best 12th at Talladega in June and stands to benefit from Front Row Motorsports' superspeedway program, which showed its strength when it won the Daytona 500 with Michael McDowell.
- Corey LaJoie - Despite missing last week's race at Michigan due to COVID-19 protocols, LaJoie has been granted a waiver to qualify for the Playoffs with a victory. LaJoie has demonstrated ability on superspeedways, as all of his Top 10 finishes in Cup -- including a 9th in this year's Daytona 500 -- have come on such tracks.
Already eliminated from playoff contention
By virtue of being outside the Top 30 in points and mathematically unable to make it back in, the following two full-time drivers would not qualify for the Playoffs even if they won at Daytona:
- Josh Bilicki
- Quin Houff
