Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.
I was 3-1 last week, which moves me to 7-5 on the season. I'm 1-2 picking upset specials to win outright, but those teams are 2-1 vs the spread.
Week 5 Picks
Northwestern at Iowa (O/U 43.5): Iowa's offense put up some big numbers early against a couple of tomato cans, but only managed 21 against North Dakota State and just 14 at Rugters (!) last week. Northwestern has a pretty good defense, but no offense, so low-scoring games are the norm for the Wildcats. You will rarely go wrong betting the under on Northwestern. Pick: Under 43.5
North Carolina at No. 12 Florida State (-11): It could be a long night for the defenses in Tallahassee, which would be status quo for these two teams. North Carolina has given up 30 points per game to its four opponents so far, which includes Illinois and FCS member James Madison. The Seminoles D has been torched for 40 points per game in its three games against FBS opponents, albeit some pretty good ones. The Tar Heels have more than enough offense to make a game of this. Pick: North Carolina (+11)
Notre Dame vs. Syracuse (+10.5): The way I figure it, this week is going to go one of two ways for the Irish. Either they are going to take out some frustration on Syracuse, or the Orange are going to add to the misery of this season. I'll take the former. Pick: Notre Dame (-10.5)
Upset of the Week
Navy at Air Force (-7): These two teams have won the Commander in Chief Trophy each of the last 19 years. Navy has taken it 10 of the last 13 seasons, including last year. Both teams enter this game undefeated, and while Army is showing signs of resurgence, this game will likely decide this season's trophy winner as well. Both teams are a little more defensive minded than we are used to seeing, and a low score favors the underdog. Pick: Navy (+7)
