Every Monday, the Eye on College Football's Tom Fornelli takes an early look at this week's most interesting point spreads in Line Study.
Ah, Hate Week. It always comes at the best time. Thanksgiving is approaching, and once that ends we'll enter the full fury of the holiday season -- that time where we're all supposed to love one another, be thankful for what we have and show our love and appreciation for others with gifts.
But before we get to that, we get one nice week of delicious hate for our fellow man. Well, the fellow man that just so happened to make the mistake of going to the wrong school, anyway.
There are only a few teams left with anything truly significant to play for this season, but that doesn't matter during Hate Week. You can be 4-7 right now, with no hopes of a conference title or bowl game, but beating your rival this week would erase so much of the pain.
The hate just runs that deep.
Rankings reflect the AP Poll
The Games You'll Be Watching
No. 15 Auburn at No. 2 Alabama (-9.5)
I think most of us envisioned this game deciding the SEC West and a possible playoff berth when the season began, but even if that's not the case, at least we were half right. Auburn cannot win the division, but it can keep Alabama from going to Atlanta and knock it out of the top four at the same time, which would be a nice consolation prize for the Tigers.
It's just I don't think Auburn can do it. Typically when it comes to these kind of rivalry games, I'm a large fan of taking the underdog. The games just tend to be close, but when I look at the way these two teams have been playing over the last month, I have a very hard time justifying taking the Tigers here.
What gives me pause is Alabama's mark against the spread this season. It's 3-8 ATS and only 2-4 ATS at home. But Auburn really hasn't been any better, as the Legend of Spread-Shredding Gus Malzahn has taken a huge hit this year as the Tigers are currently 4-7 ATS. They're also only 1-3 ATS on the road and have failed to cover in three straight.
So I'm going to go against my usual methods here and listen to my gut. I'm taking Alabama -9.5.
No. 4 Mississippi State (-2) at No. 18 Ole Miss
Considering the performance Ole Miss had against Arkansas last week, and just the way it's looked in general as of late, it's hard not to rush at Mississippi State -2 here. But I'm not going to jump; I'm going to think this one through.
Ole Miss has failed to cover in its last four games and now sits 7-4 ATS after a 7-0 start. That's not a good trend, and it's reflective of how the team has fared in general. What sticks out to me, though, is that the Rebels are still 4-2 ATS at home, and are 2-0 ATS as an underdog this season. More importantly, the Rebels have won both games in which they were an underdog (against Texas A&M and Alabama).
So now we approach this Saturday with Ole Miss considered a home dog in a rivalry game against the school it hates more than any other. The school it can knock out of the SEC title and playoff hunt with a win.
I love taking underdogs in rivalry games, and I cherish home dogs in such instances. I'm going with Ole Miss +2.
Florida at No. 1 Florida State (-7.5)
Just to give you an idea of how the entire world feels about Florida State these days, this line actually opened with the Seminoles as a 10-point favorite, and before you could blink the line had been bet down to 7.5-points. And for good reason.
Florida State is 3-8 ATS this season and simply refuses to blow anybody out.
Florida, meanwhile, has been all right ATS, going 5-5. It's also covered in three of its last four games as the offense seems to have improved substantially with Treon Harris at quarterback.
The Gators are also 3-1 ATS on the road while the Noles are 1-5 ATS at home. So take all those trends, mix them in with my underdog in a rivalry game theory, then divide by Florida State's insistence on playing close games and you get Florida +7.5.
It's science, folks.
Michigan at No. 7 Ohio State (-20)
That spread is just too big. I mean, I get it, as Vegas is trying to draw equal action on the game, but it's just too big. Yes, Ohio State is much better than Michigan and has been all season, but it doesn't matter.
Last year Ohio State was a lot better than Michigan too, as the Buckeyes entered this game at 11-0 while the Wolverines were 7-4. With the Wolverines entering that game as losers in three of their last four, nobody expected them to do much against the unstoppable Buckeyes. That's why Ohio State was a 16-point favorite heading into Ann Arbor.
And Ohio State won 42-41.
This year Michigan has a lot to play for. It needs a win to become bowl-eligible, and it also has the chance to crush Ohio State's playoff hopes. There's also the "win one for the Gipper" factor in play, as this will likely be Brady Hoke's final game at Michigan, and his players know it.
So while I don't think Michigan is going to win this game, I feel fairly confident in its ability to hang within three touchdowns. I'm taking Michigan +20.
No. 13 Arizona State at No. 12 Arizona (Pick 'em)
I generally don't include Pick 'em games in Line Study because you're just picking a winner, but given that there's a lot on the line in this game, and it is a rivalry, I'm making an exception. Both of these teams are still alive in the Pac-12 South and have a chance to take on Oregon in the title game, even if they need help in the form of a UCLA loss. But they have to win this game first.
So who is going to win?
I really don't have a lot of faith in Arizona, even if it is currently 9-2 on the season. To me it's been a good team this season with a whole lot of luck on its side, bolstering it's record. And I think it's 4-7 mark ATS (as well as 1-5 ATS at home) reflects that a bit.
I just think Arizona State is a better team, and because of that, I'm taking Arizona State.
No. 22 Minnesota at No. 14 Wisconsin (-13.5)
The winner of this game gets to play Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, so while it's not a marquee rivalry game that gets a lot of attention nationally (though, believe me, these schools don't like each other), it's still a huge game.
I've doubted Minnesota all season. In my mind it was a good team that was taking advantage of a schedule that had a soft opening in the Big Ten. When the Gophers lost to Illinois, I thought my feelings had been vindicated. Since then, however, the Gophers crushed Iowa, hung with Ohio State and beat Nebraska in Lincoln.
I no longer doubt this team.
I also like their chances on the road against Wisconsin, at least when it comes to covering that spread, I mean. The Gophers are 7-4 ATS and only 2-2 ATS on the road, but what stands out is the fact that they're 4-1 ATS as an underdog. They're also 3-2 straight up as a dog with wins over Michigan, Iowa and Nebraska.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, is thoroughly average against the number this year, going 5-6 overall and 3-4 at home. Even if the Badgers are playing their best football this year, I'm not sure that makes them two touchdowns better than this Minnesota team so I'm taking Minnesota +13.5.
