The Champions League group stage concludes this week with four spots in the knockout rounds up for grabs and only four games having nothing riding on them. Here are some of the players I'll be keeping an eye on in the biggest matchups:
1. Kieran Trippier, Newcastle
If Newcastle should need a man to craft something out of nothing -- whether through a dead ball or in open play -- in their must-win clash with AC Milan at St. James' Park, there is one man they would inevitably gravitate too. Trippier is by far and away their most deadly creator, the man who delivers opportunities for him when they need them most.
In this season's Premier League Anthony Gordon has the Magpies' second highest expected assists (xA) at 1.8. Trippier has 5.4. Bruno Guimaraes is number two for chances created. His 20 is way less than the 45 of Newcastle's right back. In the Champions League, too, Eddie Howe turns to his full back, who accounts for over a quarter of his team's entire xA in Europe and league play since the start of last season. He is perhaps the only player in the squad who, after bombing halfway up the pitch on a full pelt overlapping run, can play a pass with sufficient precision to assist the sprinting Sean Longstaff in stride for this goal against Paris Saint-Germain.
Few players can frequently make these passes. Even fewer can do so while defending their wing robustly. That is what Newcastle have got from Trippier since his arrival from Atletico Madrid nearly two years ago. At least it has been until very recently. The last week has been an extremely trying one for the England international, ripped to shreds first by Dwight McNeill and then Son Heung-Min. Those displays, where he was effectively handing the opposition goals whether through direct mistakes or by simply having no answer to the runs of his winger, feel like something of an aberration. In reality they are exactly what you would expect of a 33 year old who had played every minute in a run of eight games in 36 days before he was withdrawn for the final four minutes of the Magpies' humbling at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
In normal times Trippier might have missed either that trip or the game against Everton with an eye on Wednesday's crucial Champions League game. This summer Newcastle even bought a promising young right back with Premier League experience to ease the load on their veteran. Such is the brutal injury crisis on Tyneside, however, that Howe has concluded he needs Valentino Livramento at left back. As Howe hinted at on Sunday, it is hard enough to drop your biggest attacking weapon in the best of times, let alone when you are as light in your frontline as you are in defense.
"If I make changes, I want to make changes that benefit the team," said the Newcastle manager. "We don't have an abundance of options. When [Trippier is] part of your biggest attacking threat every week, he's a very difficult one to miss out. Even today he had his moments with some really good crosses, especially in the second half."
That, then, is the bind that Newcastle find themselves in when Rafael Leao comes to town. If the Milan forward, who is expected to shake off a hamstring issue, is half the player he is on his best days then Trippier's heavy legs may cost his side a shot at the Champions League knockouts. Equally Howe can hardly just hook the one player he'd most want standing over a late dead ball with Newcastle's hopes on the land. Deep breath Kieran. This is going to be a long night.
Golazo Starting XI Newsletter
Get your Soccer Fix from Around the Globe
Your ultimate guide to the Beautiful Game as our experts take you beyond the pitch and around the globe with news that matters.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
Sorry!
There was an error processing your subscription.
2. Yann Sommer, Inter
The qualifiers in Group D might be sewn up, but the San Siro will still play host to one of the most intriguing battles of the final round as Inter and Real Sociedad vie for top spot. We know everything we need to know about the former, unlikely to make it to Wembley, but a team that is eminently capable of bloodying a nose or two with their ferocious attack. The possibilities for last year's beaten finalist, however, seem altogether more varied. As was the case 12 months ago, the Champions League field seems to have one probable champion (although Manchester City's recent wobbles do make one wonder) and an awful lot of flawed contenders.
Inter came through a favorable draw last year thanks to the heroics of their goalkeeper. Why not do that again? Yann Sommer was hardly the starriest of names with which they could have replaced Andre Onana, but the 34 year old has produced some performances to compare with his predecessor in Europe last season, most notably a brilliant save when Inter were leading Napoli by a solitary goal earlier this month.
As Francesco Porzio noted after the Napoli win, Inter's marriage with their new shot stopper was one of convenience, the €4 million they spent on him meaning that the Onana money could stretch not only to a replacement goalkeeper but also Benjamin Pavard. Sommer has the look of a shrewd pick up, aside from one error at Sassuolo, he has excelled, already earning comparisons with Samir Handanovic and fulsome praise from another great Inter goalkeeper in Walter Zenga.
The numbers look promising, save ratio might not be a perfect statistic but there's no harm saving 83.9 percent of the shots you face, preventing 2.6 goals more this season in Serie A and the Champions League than an average goalkeeper would be expected to. The shot chart above points to a player who is simply dealing with all the efforts he should, sprinkling in a few top saves in addition. Such a player can be extremely valuable in the latter stages of this competition, particularly when they have Sommer's record in penalty shootouts as well.
3. Mats Hummels, Borussia Dortmund
Be still your beating hearts, folks, but Wednesday will bring with it an almighty festive treat for you and yours. Where once you would get your Champions League team of the week -- prosaic, sometimes unduly overloaded with players that the author saw in Tuesday's games -- this time the team of the group stage will land on your internet, ready for you to rage over. Without wishing to spoil the surprise it is safe to say that, unless he goes totally rogue and sticks the ball in his own net, Mats Hummels is a lock for that particular selection.
After all, few saw Borussia Dortmund as the leading contenders to escape the group of death. Even fewer would have said that they would tie up top spot merely by drawing with PSG on the final matchday. Would anyone of those happy few have said "and Dortmund will do all of this because they have one of the competition's best defenses". Dortmund, who concede indiscriminately in the Bundesliga, have held Leao, Alexander Isak, Kylian Mbappe and the rest to three goals in five games.
Dortmund aren't keeping other teams at bay by never letting them have the ball, indeed they only 44 percent of it. What Edin Terzic's side are doing brilliantly is active defending: getting in their clearances, winning aerials and blocking shots. It's not necessarily the sort of defense Champions League winners do, but given the opposition it seems fair to chuck questions of long-term efficacy out of the window. At the heart of Dortmund's defensive excellence is Hummels, a player who can find himself widely chastised for a clumsy red card in the Bundesliga but who comes to life on the big nights.
The 34-year-old leads the tournament for tackles by a fair margin, an imperfect statistic no doubt but one that gives you a sense of why Dortmund are defending so well. Their center back is asserting himself on the dangerous areas, his 10 interceptions bettered by only two players in the competition, one of whom has his defensive stats swelled by getting to play Manchester City twice. Only three center backs have made more ball recoveries, only one has competed in over 50 duels and won more than Hummels 71.4%. This is old man defending to a tee, the sort that might just hold PSG's attack at bay on the biggest night of their season.
4. Alejandro Garnacho, Manchester United
Perhaps Galatasaray and Copenhagen will self sabotage, maybe Thomas Tuchel will be inclined to give his stars a rest and then, most remarkably of all, Manchester United might turn in a sensible enough performance to beat a top opponent. It won't particularly matter. On their current trajectory Erik ten Hag's side do well when they merely postpone embarrassment to the following week. A rebuild that takes United away from this vituperative squad is long since overdue. It's time to find out what the youngsters at Old Trafford can offer when handed the reins, ideally before the worst qualities of the dressing room can rub off on them.
At least United have one who is worth a sustained look. There might be plenty of youthful waste in his production so far, but Garnacho is increasingly proving himself to be a young forward of real promise. By an almighty distance, he averages the most shots per 90 minutes of anyone in this squad, 3.7 in the Premier League and Champions League. Not all of those are as spectacular as November's goal of the month, his unforgettable overhead kick against Everton, and at his worst the 19-year-old is more of a threat to supporters behind the goal than he has the man between the sticks.
That, however, is a significantly more preferable application of youthful endeavour than a player who does not get into shooting spots. It is altogether easier to coach the bad shots out of Garnacho than it is to coach any shots into him. Ten Hag might want to discourage that cluster of efforts from range outside the area, but even those bring with them a challenge to defenders, the possibility that if they just sit off Garnacho he can bend one into the corner and make them look very foolish indeed. Then there are those from altogether more beneficial spots to the left corner of the penalty spot. That he can regularly get there so early in his career bodes extremely well.
Garnacho shoots when he should dribble, crosses when he should lay it off, misses when he should score. That is all absolutely fine given his age; the most important thing is he is getting into spots to meaningfully impact games. He needs to be empowered to do so more frequently, even if that means a wild night against Bayern Munich. United aren't winning the Champions League this season or next. They need to be planning several years out and that means finding out whether Garnacho can grow into a player that can be a mainstay on a team that does, eventually, compete at the very top level.
5. Mehdi Taremi, Porto
Over the last few seasons Taremi has been one of the most quietly effective strikers in European football. His first three seasons brought with them 58 league goals with impressive underlying metrics to convince the many suitors that circled Porto he could be a useful short term option. In each campaign he averaged over three shots per 90 whilst his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) were at 0.53, 0.57 and 0.48.
That even translated into the Champions League where he scored five goals (two of them penalties) in the run to the last 16. So far in the group stage Taremi's European form has just about held up but in league play the picture is altogether more troubling. He now averages just 0.17 npxG and 1.25 shots per 90. A decline in output is natural for a 31 year old. For some that is more vertiginous than others.
Will this matter for Porto when they face Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday, a point enough to take them into the knockout rounds? Perhaps not, Evanilson has found fine form when he has featured whilst Pepe and particularly Galeno offer a real threat from the flanks. Sergio Conceicao's side would, however, find it altogether easier if their chief source of goals could prove this week that he has hit a blip rather than a wall.
