Corner Picks: Best bets for the last Premier League and Serie A matches of the season

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We have arrived at the final weekend of the season, and I'm getting a little emotional about it. As I told you in last week's column, after getting essentially a year straight of action, it's hard to stare the coming months of non-league play in the face, though at least we have international competitions to keep us going.

The other thing that's getting me emotional is this is a difficult weekend to bet! From a pure fan perspective, it's terrific that there's still so much to play for across Europe, but the prices on teams can get out of whack because of it. Then there's the motivation of the other team in most matches.

How badly do they want to be there? Are some already on the beach in their mind? For example, if we look at the three teams in Italy with a Champions League spot on the line this weekend (AC Milan, Juventus and Napoli), only AC Milan play a top-half team in the league. But Atalanta already have their UCL spot wrapped up, so you have to figure out of Atalanta would rather ruin AC Milan's season or screw over Juventus. Or, maybe Atalanta doesn't care one way or the other!

So, yeah, there are many different variables one must consider this week, and after going through all the scenarios, these are the three picks I have the most faith in.

Leicester City vs. Tottenham, Sun. 11 a.m, NBCSN

So here's the situation for Leicester. Brendan Rodger's side has to win this match if it wants to reach the Champions League, and even if it does win, it's not guaranteed of anything. Still, Leicester can only control what they do and can't concern themselves with Liverpool. And I think Leicester can do that, and we're getting a nice price on them.

The concerns are that Leicester are limping toward the finish line a bit. Sure, they won the FA Cup last week, but they've managed only 10 points in their last eight matches in league play. Well, I can't think of a better team to play right now than Tottenham. If ever there was a team already on vacation in its mind, it's Tottenham. The team looked disinterested against Aston Villa during the week, and Harry Kane has reached the stage where he's making it public he wants to leave. Maybe Tottenham show up ready to play this weekend, but I think it's more likely everyone is ready to get on with their lives after a long year. The Pick: Leicester City (+103)

Arsenal vs. Brighton, Sun. 11 a.m, Peacock

Brighton are hilarious. They're a team that has beaten both Liverpool and Manchester City (pinking up seven points in four matches against them), yet are currently in 16th place. All the metrics scream, "this team is a lot better than you think," but they've been comically bad at putting the ball in the net, which is an essential part of the game. Then the luck evens out in quick bursts. I'm hoping we get another one of those bursts against an Arsenal team I've loved to fade as a favorite all season.

Brighton's been better than Arsenal this season if we look at the expected goal difference (xGD) per match. Their xGD per match is 0.40 to Arsenal's 0.23. Now, Brighton have been better at home, but Arsenal's been better on the road than at home, so that evens things out a little. Whatever the location, there's a lot of value on Brighton to finish the season with a result. The Pick: Brighton or Draw (+130)

Torino vs. Benevento, Sun. 2:45 p.m, ESPN+

Yes, that's right, I'm finishing this season's Corner Picks with a match between teams in 17th and 18th place in Serie A. Oh, and nothing is on the line. No matter what happens in this match, Benevento cannot pass Torino in the standings, and it will be relegated. And that's precisely why we're picking this match!

You see, the trip from Benevento to Torino is about 90 minutes if you fly, but Benevento will not be flying. No, club president Oreste Vigorito is reportedly punishing his team for being relegated by making them take a 12-hour bus trip north to Torino. So a team that's already been relegated will now have to spend 12 hours in a bus before playing a meaningless match. I told you there were a lot of variables to consider this week. Fade the bus. The Pick: Torino (-127)