The UEFA Champions League quarterfinals got off to a thrilling start on Tuesday as 10 goals were scored across two games, each of which ended in a draw ahead of some very consequential second leg matches in a week.
Tuesday's matches were arguably the most anticipated games of the quarterfinals and lived up to the billing in every way. Real Madrid's 3-3 draw with Manchester City seems poised to go down as one of the Champions League's best knockout games, while Arsenal's 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich did not disappoint despite the contrasting form of both teams heading into the matchup. It sets up for second legs that are destined to entertain thanks to the high stakes involved, even if they only provide a fraction of the drama the first legs did.
Never will an eight-day wait for a set of matches feel as long as this, so while we come down from the high of an epic day in the Champions League, here's a batch of predictions for next week's high-profile ties.
Fewer goals, but still plenty
Let's get one thrilling prediction out of the way -- there might not be as many goals in the second legs since Tuesday's games were an exercise in outperforming expected goals tallies, but we will not necessarily have a shortage of them. Both City and Madrid are reliable to concede a goal or two every few games regardless of the opponent, but as Tuesday's first leg proves, they are destined to do so against top-tier attacks. The same is very much true for Bayern Munich, who are in the midst of an underwhelming season, but even Arsenal demonstrated some defensive instability despite strong performances in the back in recent weeks.
Each one of these teams has at least one, if not more, goalscorer that can get the job done regardless of the game state, as Tuesday's outings showed. The list of names on the scoresheets of both games looks like an all-star cast -- Phil Foden, Rodrygo, Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka scored, while Vinicius Junior notched two assists. Expect at least a portion of them to have their say in the second legs, but it's incredibly likely each one of them showcases their qualities next week, too.
Haaland stays absent
The theme of the night at the Santiago Bernabeu was clearly goalscoring, but if one person did not receive the memo, it was Erling Haaland. The truth is, he has not been as productive since returning from a bone fracture in his foot in February -- he averaged one goal a game beforehand and is down to 0.81 since, while his expected goals tally (1.07 to 0.79) and shots per game (4.57 to 4.27) are also down.
It's not that he does not score anymore, but he's become a little less reliable than he once was for City. The good news for them is that they are faring fine without him -- one of the goalscorers, Foden, is now up to four goals in his last two starts and is their man of the moment. Pep Guardiola's side might also fare better if Kevin de Bruyne recovers from his illness and can play a big part next week.
Bayern give Arsenal a run for their money
Bayern were far from dominant against Arsenal on Tuesday, but they showed signs of life during a season in which they have taken one beating after the next. With only the Champions League left for them to compete for, that might be all the encouragement they need next week to put in a strong showing -- especially since it's the biggest game of their below-par season.
Kane's up to 39 goals in 38 games for Bayern this season and now has 15 in 20 games against Arsenal, so he might be good for at least one goal next week. The German champions also have a strong record at home this season in the Champions League -- outside of their 4-3 game against Manchester United at the start of the season, they have conceded just once at the Allianz Arena.
Their fairly porous back line might not eventually stand up to the test of Arsenal's sometimes prolific attacking unit, including Saka and Leandro Trossard, but Tuesday's performance showed that they can at least go toe-to-toe with them. The odds may be in the Gunners' favor since they drew this Bayern team, but it will be no cakewalk.
Score predictions
- Manchester City 2, Real Madrid 2 (Manchester City advance on penalties)
- Arsenal 2, Bayern Munich 1 (after extra time)
Another pair of closely contested games seems likely, but the edge lies with the teams that are better positioned to put together complete performances at this point in the season. That just so happens to be the two remaining English teams, who could confidently advance to the semifinals by the end of next week -- but we might get some bonus soccer before they do so.
