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It feels like we're falling into a rut now with most of the Nos. 4 and 5 starters all pitching on the same day. This happened twice last week and here we are again.
I suppose the bright side is that there is at least a game at Coors with Alfredo Simon pitching. I understand in tournaments in may be tempting to think that the Rockies will be over-owned (they will be) but I don't have the guts to fade it.
The one really good pitcher on the slate (Carlos Carrasco) is on an 80-pitch limit against the inexplicably hot Kansas City Royals. The way this offense has been going, that may only be enough for four innings. On the other hand Carrasco is going to face a lot of hitters you probably hadn't heard of a few months ago, so the chances of him getting through the sixth with 6+ Ks are non-zero. That might be enough to be the top scoring pitcher tonight.
More likely the right play is to pick 1-2 pitchers you really like and work out several different variations of Coors stacks. This might be a night where hitting on 4-5 hitters won't be enough. I would guess that at least one of the "obvious" Coors plays is going to bust and this method gives you an opportunity to miss that bust while hitting on the top plays.
Starting Pitchers
Jerad Eickhoff ($7,000, $8,600)
The fact that Eickhoff tops my list of pitchers today tells you all you need to know about Thursday's slate. On FanDuel, Eickhoff gives you the best chance to get upside out of your pitcher slot and stack Coors. The 25 year-old righty has had an up and down season with most of the good times coming against bad offenses. He was lit up by the Brewers in Milwaukee earlier this year, but the Brewers are not the same team on the road. Outside of Miller Park they rank 26th in in wOBA (.290) and dead last in K rate (27.1 percent).
Wade Miley ($8,300, $8,900)
While Eickhoff has a good matchup, Miley has the best matchup. The Padres have been atrocious against both RHP and LHP this season and own a 26.8 percent K rate vs. lefties.Miley is not a good pitcher, but that hasn't really mattered against this Padres offense. He does have at least six Ks in three of his last four starts and the other start was six shutout innings against the Orioles.
Matt Moore ($7,200, $8,100)
Speaking of strikeout potential, that's about the only thing Matt Moore has going for him this season. Moore has struck out nearly a batter per inning but the rest of his numbers have been ruined by his .337 BABIP allowed and 15.9 percent HR/FB rate. The home runs shouldn't be as big of a concern against a Twins lineup that is without Miguel Sano. Even with Sano, the Twins have been below average in the power department with a team ISO of .143.
Stack Attack
As bad as the pitching options are it feels like a night where Coors may make them irrelevant anyway. Alfredo Simon is one of our favorite pitchers to pick on no matter where he pitches. On Thursday he's at Coors and that makes the Rockies must-plays. The easy thing to do would be to stack the top four in the order, but I'll be tempted to put Gerardo Parra in for D.J. LeMahieu. I want a healthy doe of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce as well. Rockies pitcher Eddie Butler has surrendered a .436 wOBA at Coors to LHH.
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Fading Coors is not a good idea tonight, but the Red Sox are the one team you might be able to use and get away with it. Mookie Betts is the hottest hitter in baseball and Ubaldo Jimenez has been atrocious this season. Ubaldo is a pitcher that makes me nervous because of his random bouts of greatness, but that doesn't really feel like a concern tonight. If you don't play Joey Votto, David Ortiz is clearly the next best thing.
Mariners vs. Padres
I don't really love the other stacking options on Thursday's slate despite the dearth of good pitching. The one exception is the Mariners against Colin Rea. Rea has been a reverse splits pitcher over his short career, but that shouldn't scare me away from Robinson Cano or Seth Smith. Nelson Cruz is the top play amongst the non-Coors outfielders if you want to fade Mookie Betts.
Lineups
I'm going to offer my early take on a cash game lineup, but of course you should always check out our Sportsline projections for lineup changes right up to lock. Also, check out our podcast on iTunes for extended thoughts on each slate from Chris Towers, Mike McClure and myself.
FanDuel
P Jerad Eickhoff $7,000
C Derek Norris $2,300
1B Joey Votto $4,100
2B D.J. LeMahieu $3,800
3B Nolan Arenado $4,600
SS Jose Iglesias $2,200
OF Hyun-Soo Kim $2,400
OF Carlos Gonzalez $4,300
OF Jay Bruce $4,300
DraftKings
P Jerad Eickhoff $8,600
P Wade Miley $8,900
C Tucker Barnhardt $3,000
1B Joey Votto $5,000
2B Brian Dozier $3,700
3B Nolan Arenado $5,400
SS Jordy Mercer $3,200
OF Aaron Hicks $3,000
OF Charlie Blackmon $5,200
OF Odubel Herrera $3,900
