With the NBA trade deadline and All-Star break behind us, it's time to take stock of the playoff picture. Let's start with the tight race for the No. 4 seed in the East -- the lucky winner not only gets home-court advantage in the first round in the playoffs, but will likely avoid the revamped Cleveland Cavaliers until the conference finals.
(For the sake of this exercise, we are assuming that the Cavaliers will finish the season much better than they started it. Right now, they are 35-24, just ahead of the first team on this list.)
Washington Wizards (35-25)
If you simply looked at the Wizards' place in the standings without having watched them this season, you'd wonder what all the fuss was about. It makes sense that they're currently fourth in the East, 10th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating. (Last season, they finished fourth and were ninth in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating.)
Washington is interesting, though, because very little of this season has been predictable. When John Wall was on the court, the Wizards were underachieving and unhappy. Since he's been sitting out because of knee surgery, they have gone 9-3 with the sixth-best net rating in the league.
This is not to say that Washington is better without Wall (although it seems clear it is better without the version of Wall that was playing through knee pain earlier this season). The ball movement that has energized the team in the last month has been seen on previous Wizards teams. The questions are whether or not they can keep winning like this while he remains out and whether or not he can quickly fit in when he comes back.
If you want to be optimistic about this, look no further than their 109-94 win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday, in which Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre combined for 42 points on 16-for-27 shooting. Bradley Beal is obviously a star and Tomas Satoransky has been a revelation, but if Washington can continue to get that kind of production from Porter and Oubre at the same time, this is a dangerous team.
The tough part: The Wizards have had one of the league's easiest schedules, and that is about to balance out. They have 22 games left, 10 of which will be part of back-to-backs. That Sixers win was the first of 13 straight games against playoff teams.
Indiana Pacers (34-26)
The Pacers also have a challenging stretch in the schedule coming up, but they have to be extremely happy with both their record and the way they've been playing lately. Before Monday's rough loss to the Dallas Mavericks, they had won 10 of their last 13 games. In that stretch, they have ranked sixth in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating -- the most balanced they've been since the very beginning of the season.
Can the defense hold up against stiffer competition? That could be the difference between Indiana being in the mix for the No. 4 seed down the stretch or just sneaking into the playoffs. Coach Nate McMillan wants this team to force turnovers and push the pace, but for most of the season the Pacers have been only average in terms of getting stops.
More than any other team on this list, though, just making the playoffs will be an accomplishment. Nobody expected Indiana to be this good, and McMillan deserves credit for changing his approach to suit his new personnel. He told the Indianapolis Star recently that "the new Nate" is quieter and less controlling -- he calls fewer plays and the team holds fewer shootarounds.
The Pacers aren't running as much as they did earlier in the season, but they're not a grind-it-out team, either. This is largely thanks to the aggressiveness of Victor Oladipo, whose season might still be underappreciated despite making the All-Star team and being a frontrunner for Most Improved Player. With Oladipo on the court, they have outscored opponents by 7.5 points per 100 possessions; with him on the bench, they have been outscored by 7.0 points per 100 possession. That differential is obscene.
One player to watch: Myles Turner. He has had an uneven season, thanks to an elbow injury, but has been better defensively in the past few weeks and had 24 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks against Dallas. If Turner finds his rhythm on offense, Indiana could be dangerous.
Milwaukee Bucks (33-26)
This is the week we learn a lot about the Bucks. They host the Wizards on Tuesday, visit Detroit on Wednesday, host the Pacers on Friday, host the Sixers on Sunday and visit Indiana on Monday. These teams all have similar records, with the exception of the Pistons, who are fighting desperately to make the playoffs after making their win-now Blake Griffin move (and are thus not on this list). A bunch of wins here would not only help them as they try to solidify their position in the East; it would send a message that they are for real.
Milwaukee is 11th in offensive rating but has been in the top 10 for the vast majority of the season. Since Joe Prunty replaced Jason Kidd as coach on Jan. 22, it has the league's third-best defensive rating. The million-dollar question is whether or not that is sustainable -- most of the Bucks' dominant defensive performances have been against teams with losing records. Their overtime win in Toronto on Friday seemed extremely encouraging, but then they squandered a lead and lost in overtime against the Pelicans on Sunday.
It is possible that this is the conference's sleeping giant. Giannis Antetokounmpo is having an MVP-caliber season, and his supporting cast has never been better, at least on paper. Milwaukee misses injured guard Malcolm Brogdon, but on Sunday Jabari Parker had his best game since his return. If everybody is healthy come playoff time, this could be the kind of team that upsets a higher seed. Without a strong finish in the next six weeks, though, few people will predict such a thing.
Fun fact: Eric Bledsoe has averaged 20.2 points, 6.9 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 2.1 steals per 36 minutes with a 61.4 percent true shooting percentage since Prunty took over.
Philadelphia 76ers (32-26)
This is my pick for the No. 4 spot, despite the fact they're in seventh place right now. Philadelphia has had one of the league's toughest schedules, and yet it is fourth in defensive rating on the season. Young teams are not supposed to do that, but the Sixers are not like most young teams. Their two stars play like vets, and they have several proven role players supporting them.
As you might expect, Philadelphia has improved throughout the season. In the 2018 calendar year, it is 12th in offensive rating, second in defensive rating and fourth in net rating. The Sixers turn the ball over too often, but they make up for it by dominating the glass. Even beyond the excellence of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, there are so many good storylines with this team -- Dario Saric's versatility, JJ Redick's playmaking, their ability to attract Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova after buyouts -- that it's easy to ignore the confusing Markelle Fultz saga.
Before losing to the Wizards on Sunday, Philadelphia had won seven games in a row, five of them by double digits. The pieces fit, and the Sixers appear to be figuring out how good they can be. With games against the Heat, Cavaliers and Bucks coming up, they have a chance to show that they should be taken seriously. It is safe to say that they are way ahead of schedule.
By the way, in the 1,474 minutes Embiid has played, Philadelphia has outscored opponents by 10.1 points per 100 possessions (for context: The Warriors have outscored their opponents by 10.4 points per 100 possessions all season, and the Rockets have outscored opponents by 8.8 points per 100 possessions), and opponents are shooting just 41.9 percent.
Miami Heat (31-29)
Before Saturday's blowout win over the Memphis Grizzlies, the Heat had lost eight of nine. Some of this is just bad luck -- their eight-point loss to Houston was the most lopsided of those games. Increasingly, though, Miami is looking like an average team. Based on point differential, the Heat should actually be under .500 -- this is the only team on this list with a negative net rating.
The good news: the Heat have 22 games to play and 14 of them are at home. They only have two sets of back-to-backs left. This is an opportunity to string some much-needed wins together.
The bad news: This Dwyane Wade reunion could get awkward as Miami searches for more shooting. Floor-spacing big man Kelly Olynyk has been out for weeks, and the addition of Luke Babbitt hasn't made up for it. Coach Erik Spoelstra is doing the best he can to mitigate this -- Wade and Justise Winslow have only played eight minutes together -- but the Heat's 24th-ranked offense needs more juice.
Given how hot Miami got in the second half of last season (and the fact that it was fourth in the conference at the beginning of this month), it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility of this team finishing the season strong. In order to get back where it was, though, it will need to recapture some of the magic it had during that memorable turnaround. The personnel is a bit different this time, but perhaps that Memphis game was the start of something.
