The New Mexico State Aggies begin a run in a new conference this week. Jerry Kill's team is now a member of Conference USA, with New Mexico State facing the UMass Minutemen in a Week 0 opener. Seven FBS games are in place on Saturday, with Aggie Memorial Stadium hosting the game in Las Cruces. New Mexico State finished 7-6 last season, including a win over UMass, with the Minutemen finishing 1-11.
For this game, SportsLine consensus lists New Mexico State as a 7-point favorite for this 7 p.m. ET kickoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 45 in the latest UMass vs. New Mexico State odds. Before locking in any New Mexico State vs. UMass picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on UMass vs. New Mexico State and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college football odds and betting lines for UMass vs. New Mexico State:
- UMass vs. New Mexico State spread: New Mexico State -7
- UMass vs. New Mexico State over/under: 45 points
- UMass vs. New Mexico State money line: NMSU -282, UMass +226
- UMASS: The Minutemen were 5-7 against the spread in 2022
- NMSU: The Aggies were 8-5 against the spread in 2022
- UMass vs. New Mexico State picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why UMass can cover
UMass is coming off a disastrous 2022 season, but the future appears to be brighter for the Minutemen. Don Brown's team is building up on defense, returning key contributors in Gerrell Johnson and Jordan Mahoney. Johnson has more than 130 tackles over the last two seasons, with Mahoney producing three interceptions and six passes defended last season. UMass also brought in a high-profile transfer from Ole Miss in safety Dashaun Jerkins, and the Minutemen yielded fewer than 180 passing yards per game with nine interceptions and more than 70 tackles for loss a year ago.
On offense, UMass returns four starters along the offensive line, and New Mexico State has some offensive shortcomings on paper. The Aggies completed only 52.1% of passes with 169.2 passing yards per game last season, producing only 18 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. New Mexico State averaged fewer than 26 points and 335 total yards per game last season, and the Aggies were below the national average with a 39% conversion rate on third downs. See which team to pick here.
Why New Mexico State can cover
The Aggies have the benefit of home-field advantage in this spot, and New Mexico State was 4-2 against the spread in Las Cruces a year ago. In addition to New Mexico State's own strengths, Jerry Kill's team is also facing a vulnerable opponent. UMass is 3-37 over the last four seasons, the worst mark in the FBS, and the Minutemen went just 1-11 a season ago. UMass finished with the worst scoring offense in the country, averaging only 12.5 points per game, and the Minutemen scored 20 points or more in only two games.
UMass completed fewer than half of pass attempts with four touchdown passes and 14 interceptions, and the Minutemen also averaged only 3.4 yards per carry and 14.6 first downs per game. New Mexico State should also be able to get off the field against a UMass team that converted only 28.4% of third downs last season, and the Minutemen also lose ground on special teams. UMass finished dead-last in FBS in punting average (36.4) and net punting average (32.5) during the 2022 season. See which team to pick here.
How to make UMass vs. New Mexico State picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, with both teams projected to score more points than their respective 2022 per game season averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's CFB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins UMass vs. New Mexico State, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the UMass vs. New Mexico State spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has notched a profit of almost $2,500 on its college football picks, and find out.
