PGA Championship DFS: Play or Fade
- By Mike McClure
Charl Schwartzel is overvalued as the 25th most expensive golfer on DraftKings. With a projected rank of 27th and a simulated win percent of just 1.2 percent Charl Schwartzel is a player to fade in the PGA Championship.
Credit: USATSILouis Oosthuizen offers slightly better DFS value than Charl Schwartzel. Oosthuizen is unlikely to win the event, but a solid bet to make the cut and play all four rounds.
Credit: USATSIThomas Pieters offers solid DFS value projected as the 19th best golfer compared to the 23rd most expensive DraftKings salary. Pieters is a great mid-range option with plenty of birdie upside.
Credit: USATSICharley Hoffman isn't going to win the PGA Championship. However, he can return nice DFS value with his modest price tag realtive to his recent form.
Credit: USATSIDaniel Berger is a great value play at the PGA Championship. Projected as the 14th best golfer with only the 21st most expensive salary, Berger is a near must play this week in cash games.
Credit: USATSIPaul Casey is the most overvalued golfer in the top 25 this week with a proejcted rank 20 spots lower than his salary rank. Avoid Paul Casey in DFS contests.
Credit: USATSIAlexander Noren is a clear fade for DFS contests with a simulation win percentage below one percent.
Credit: USATSITommy Fleetwood is an elite mid-ranged value play for the PGA Championship. Fleetwood is a great bet to make the cut and rack up birdies.
Credit: USATSIMark Leishman is an easy fade on DraftKings at $8,100 and a fair value at $6,700 on FanDuel. Pivot to Daniel Berger or Tommy Fleetwood if you're considering Leishman.
Credit: USATSIBranden Grace is a clear fade in all formats this week with an elevated price tag on DraftKings.
Credit: USATSIPhil Mickelson is a clear fade on DraftKings at $8,500. Mickelson doesn't have a realistic chance of winning the event, and he doesn't have the birdie upside needed to pay off his price tag in DFS.
Credit: USATSIAdam Scott is over-valued on DraftKings and FanDuel. The upside lacking in this major event field. Look to guys like Daniel Berger and Tommy Fleetwood to save salary cap.
Credit: USATSIMatt Kuchar is a longshot to win the event, but a top 10 is definitely in the cards this week at the PGA Championship.
Credit: USATSIJustin Thomas is a great mid-range value that will be low owned in a tough major field. Thomas has a strong chance of winning this event with a 3 percent simulation win percentage.
Credit: USATSIJustin Rose has struggled recently, but the SportsLine model has him projected for a top 10 finish at the PGA Championship.
Credit: USATSIBrooks Koepka has been sensational at major events in 2017 and we're projecting that run to continue this week with a top 5 projected finish at the PGA Championship.
Credit: USATSISergio Garcia is a cash game staple that is a virtual lock to make the cut and pick up birdies for four rounds.
Credit: USATSIHenrik Stenson is an easy fade with a simulation win percentage of just 2.1 percent despite his $9,800 price tag on DraftKings.
Credit: USATSIJon Rahm has struggled in recent weeks, but the SportsLine model still has him projected for a top 5 finish at the PGA Championship.
Credit: USATSIJason Day is an obvious fade at $10,400 on DraftKings where you can save money and roster Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka or Jon Rahm instead.
Credit: USATSIHideki Matsuyama is an elite value that makes a lot more sense than paying up for a player like Dustin Johnson considering the massive price difference on DraftKings. We're projecting another top 3 finish for Matsuyama who just might pick up his first major victory.
Credit: USATSIRickie Fowler offers fair value on DraftKings with a similar price point to Matsuyama and Jon Rahm. Fowler is a much better value than Dustin Johnson and Jason Day.
Credit: USATSIDustin Johnson is a clear fade at $11,400 as he just barely cracks the top 10 in projected leaderboard. Something isn't right with Johnson and the SportsLine model recommends a strong fade until he gets back on track.
Credit: USATSIRory McIlroy offers fair value with a simulation win percentage equal to five percent. Rory is a fine play on DraftKings and FanDuel if you can find the salary relief to squeeze him into your lineup.
Credit: USATSIJordan Spieth is the clear-cut number one golfer in the SportsLine model for the PGA Championship. With a 5.2 percent simulation win percentage Spieth is clearly the top guy to pay up for if you're looking to roster one of the top three in salary.
Credit: USATSI