After winning three-plus races in each of the past five seasons, Brad Keselowski has just one win so far in 2021. He has secured a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs but is 10th in the standings with five races remaining. He will make his 22nd start of the season on Sunday in the 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at 3 p.m. ET. So far this season, Keselowski has six top-five finishes and eight top-10s. New Hampshire is one of his top tracks, so even though Keselowski has not lived up to expectations, this will be a chance for him to display his best form.
Keselowski is 13-2 in the latest 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. He is in his final season with Team Penske and can make history by becoming just the fifth driver to record back-to-back wins at New Hampshire. He is looking for his third win overall at the site, and has the second highest all-time driver rating there. Before scouring the 2021 Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at New Hampshire predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.
At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.
In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Then at Road America it struck again, nailing Chase Elliott to win for another 5-2 return. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2021 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2021 NASCAR at New Hampshire leaderboard.
Top 2021 Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's a 12-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at New Hampshire odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Harvick is on a 28-race winless streak, but this is a track where he can potentially end a long and unlikely run of frustration. Harvick leads all active drivers in New Hampshire victories with four. He won consecutive races at the site in 2018 and 2019.
The loop data supports Harvick as a quality pick for NASCAR at New Hampshire 2021. Dating back to 2018, he leads all drivers in driver rating that the track (118.9). He has the best average finish during that span (2.3) and is third in fastest laps run (95). He is also third among closers with an average of 1.3 spots gained in the final 10 percent of races at New Hampshire, so Harvick may push for his first win of the 2021 season late in this week's event.
And a massive shocker: Brad Keselowski, one of the Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 starting grid. Keselowski is 10th in the NASCAR standings and would probably be gritting his teeth the last five races of the regular season if not for a win at Talladega that automatically qualifies him for his 11th consecutive playoff appearance.
While he won at New Hampshire Motor Speedway last summer, Keselowski has also finished outside the top 10 in three of his last eight starts there and certainly hasn't been racing up to expectation so far this season. Keselowski has failed to crack the top 10 in seven of his last 10 starts in the NASCAR Cup Series.
How to make 2021 NASCAR at New Hampshire picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at New Hampshire odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. It also sees value in a massive triple-digit long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 2021? And which massive triple-digit long shot is a shocking value this week? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at New Hampshire odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 leaderboard, all from the model that has called three of the last six NASCAR Cup Series winners.
2021 Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 odds
Kyle Larson 9-2
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Kyle Busch 6-1
Denny Hamlin 6-1
Brad Keselowski 13-2
Chase Elliott 15-2
Joey Logano 10-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
William Byron 14-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Christopher Bell 25-1
Kurt Busch 28-1
Matt DiBenedetto 50-1
Ross Chastain 75-1
Aric Almirola 75-1
Tyler Reddick 75-1
Austin Dillon 75-1
Daniel Suarez 125-1
Bubba Wallace 175-1
Ryan Newman 200-1
Cole Custer 200-1
Erik Jones 250-1
Chris Buescher 250-1
Chase Briscoe 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Ryan Preece 500-1
Michael McDowell 750-1
Field 2500-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
B.J. McLeod 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Anthony Alfredo 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
