NASCAR Cup Series O'Reilly Auto Parts 500
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Phoenix Raceway will host its second NASCAR Cup Series race in four months on Sunday, the 2021 Instacart 500. The race will be held on a low-banked tri-oval track that offers picturesque views of a mountain range in the background. Kyle Busch is well acquainted with the venue, as he's won three times on this track and has nine other top-four finishes, making him a potentially strong play when the 2021 Instacart 500 begins at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Busch is listed at 7-1 in the latest 2021 Instacart 500 odds from William Hill Sportsbook and will start from the No. 7 position. Busch has two top-10 finishes over the last two weeks, but his success at Phoenix pales in comparison to Kevin Harvick. A nine-time winner on this track, Harvick (9-2) has the best 2021 NASCAR at Phoenix odds, while Kyle Larson, who won last week in Las Vegas, enters at 8-1. Before you scour the 2021 Instacart 500 starting lineup and make your NASCAR at Phoenix predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Instacart 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami. 

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed its NASCAR picks has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 NASCAR at Phoenix race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2021 Instacart 500 leaderboard.

Top 2021 Instacart 500 predictions

One shocker: The model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he's a 17-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Phoenix odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After joining the Cup Series full-time in the 2016 season, Blaney has four straight top-10 finishes in the NASCAR Cup Series standings.

Blaney is coming off a fifth-place finish at last week's Pennzoil 400 in which he briefly led a race for the first time this season. He's been in the hunt in previous NASCAR at Phoenix races, with five top-10 finishes in his career, and victory lane is all that's missing from his Instacart 500 resume. He will have the No. 8 position in the 2021 Instacart 500 starting lineup.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the top Vegas favorites at 11-2, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Instacart 500 starting grid. Elliott dominated in the final two races of the 2020 season to win the NASCAR Cup, leading 236 laps on his way to a win at Martinsville and 153 laps in his championship-winning effort at Phoenix.

However, his 2021 season is off to a more pedestrian start. After running second at the Daytona 500, Elliott hasn't finished better than 13th in his last three races. Outside of the win last season, his recent history at Phoenix Raceway hasn't been stellar either. Elliott has finished outside the top 10 in three of his last five starts at Phoenix.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Phoenix picks

The model is also targeting another driver with NASCAR at Phoenix odds 2021 longer than 15-1 to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 Instacart 500? And which long shot stuns NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Phoenix odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Instacart 500 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin's win at the 2020 Daytona 500

2021 Instacart 500 odds 

Kevin Harvick 9-2
Brad Keselowski 11-2
Chase Elliott 11-2
Denny Hamlin 11-2
Martin Truex Jr. 13-2
Kyle Busch 7-1
Joey Logano 15-2
Kyle Larson 8-1
Ryan Blaney 17-1
William Byron 25-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
Kurt Busch 40-1
Christopher Bell 40-1
Aric Almirola 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Tyler Reddick 60-1
Austin Dillon 75-1
Bubba Wallace 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Ryan Newman 125-1
Chris Buescher 200-1
Erik Jones 250-1
Ross Chastain 250-1
Chase Briscoe 250-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 250-1
Michael McDowell 300-1
Ryan Preece 1000-1
Daniel Suarez 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 2000-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Justin Haley 2500-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
B.J. McLeod 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1