The green flag for the 2021 NASCAR All-Star race drops at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway. Kyle Larson, who won the race in 2019, will start on the pole, while Kyle Busch will also be on the front row. Kevin Harvick is the only active driver heading into the NASCAR All-Star Race 2021 to have won this event twice. Busch and Harvick are two of three active drivers with multiple Texas victories.

Larson is listed with 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race odds of 5-2 at William Hill Sportsbook and appears capable of emerging victorious in any event right now, as he has finished in the top two in the last five regularly-scheduled Cup races. Martin Truex Jr. is 6-1 in the latest NASCAR at Texas odds 2021, as he finished second in his most recent Texas start. Chase Elliott, the defending champion of the All-Star Race, is also listed at 6-1. Before scouring the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Texas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in seven of the last 13 races. And in April, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model was also high on eventual winner Alex Bowman at Dover in May. Anyone who has followed its lead on those picks has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard.

Top 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he's a 14-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Texas odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. He finished fourth in the most recent points-paying race at Texas Motor Speedway and also finished second at the site in 2018. Blaney has not won yet at Texas in regularly-scheduled Cup series events, but his recent loop data stats at the site suggest he could make a very strong push for the win in the NASCAR All-Star Race 2021.

Dating back to 2019 and covering the last four Cup races at Texas, Blaney is second among all active drivers in driver rating (110.7). He is first in laps led (215) and fastest laps run (141) at Texas and is third among closers, which is average spots gained in the final 10 percent of races (2.3). Blaney has also led 73 laps in his previous four All-Star races. Based on his recent Texas runs, Blaney is a name to consider for your 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race bets, according to the model.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race starting lineup. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion crawled back up to third in the NASCAR standings with four consecutive finishes of third or better, including a win at Circuit of the Americas.

However, Elliott has had mixed results on 1.5-mile speedways this season. He finished second at Charlotte and fifth at Kansas, but also finished outside the top 10 at Homestead-Miami and Las Vegas and was a dismal 38th after engine problems at Atlanta. He's also finished outside the top 10 in four consecutive starts at Texas Motor Speedway.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Texas picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Texas odds longer than 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the NASCAR All-Star Race 2021? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Texas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race leaderboard, all from the model that called at least seven of the top 10 drivers in seven of the last 13 races and nailed Martin Truex Jr.'s win at Martinsville

2021 NASCAR All-Star Race odds

Kyle Larson 5-2
Chase Elliott 6-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Kyle Busch 17-2
Denny Hamlin 10-1
William Byron 10-1
Alex Bowman 12-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Joey Logano 17-1
Christopher Bell 25-1
Austin Dillon 28-1
Kurt Busch 50-1
Ryan Newman 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Michael McDowell 300-1