The stakes to make the playoffs are getting higher as the NASCAR Cup Series kicks off the second half of its season on Sunday with the 2022 Quaker State 400. William Byron, who won this race at Atlanta Motor Speedway last year, is one of five drivers with two wins on the season and will try to be the first to record a third. He enters the 2022 NASCAR at Atlanta starting grid at 11-1 in the latest 2022 Quaker State 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook, but there are other drivers looking for their day in the sun as well. The 2022 NASCAR at Atlanta green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday on USA (stream now on FuboTV).

Kyle Larson is the 9-1 favorite in the latest 2022 NASCAR Atlanta odds, while familiar faces Kyle Busch, Chase Elliot and Ryan Blaney come in at 10-1. Tyler Reddick, winner of last week's Kwik Trip 250 at Road America, is a 15-1 long shot. Before scouring the 2022 Quaker State 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Atlanta predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Atlanta picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on him again when he returned 14-1 for his win in St. Louis. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Atlanta race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Quaker State 400 leaderboard.

Top 2022 Quaker State 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's a 25-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Harvick has won twice at Atlanta Motor Speedway over the last four seasons, so his comfort level on the 1.54-mile oval gives him an edge over the competition on Sunday.

The Bakersfield, California native was bumped from the playoff picture last weekend after Reddick won the Kwik Trip 250, but he is at the cutoff point and a win this week can put him back in the mix. With four top-five finishes through the first half of the season, Harvick is undervalued at 25-1, according to the model.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, the Vegas favorite at 9-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 Quaker State 400 starting grid. After dominating in 2021 and racking up 10 victories on his way to his first career championship, Larson has only managed one victory so far during the first half of the season.

While his postseason hopes are justifiably high, Atlanta has been a challenge for him throughout his career. He's finished outside the top 10 in three of his last four starts there, including a 30th-place finish after a crash earlier this season and an 18th-place finish despite starting in sixth in 2021.

How to make 2022 NASCAR at Atlanta picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Atlanta odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Quaker State 400 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Atlanta odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Quaker State 400 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season

2022 Quaker State 400 odds (via Caesars Sportsbook)

See full NASCAR at Atlanta picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Kyle Larson 9-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Joey Logano 11-1
William Byron 11-1
Bubba Wallace 12-1
Tyler Reddick 15-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
Kurt Busch 18-1
Daniel Suarez 20-1
Christopher Bell 20-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Chase Briscoe 25-1
Austin Cindrick 25-1
Kevin Harvick 25-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Brad Keselowski 35-1
Austin Dillon 40-1
Chris Buescher 40-1
Ricky Stenhouse 50-1
Erik Jones 50-1
Michael McDowell 60-1
Justin Haley 60-1
Cole Custer 80-1
Harrison Burton 150-1
Ty Dillon 200-1
Corey Lajoie 200-1
Noah Gragson 250-1
Todd Gilliland 300-1
Josh Bilicki 500-1
BJ McLeod 500-1
Garrett Smithley 500-1
Cody Ware 500-1