It's been a strong start to the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series for Hendrick Motorsports, which won two of the first three races. That's a promising sign for the team's prospects at the 2024 Shriners Children's 500, especially considering Hendrick's success at Phoenix Raceway. Team member William Byron won this race last year, which was Hendrick's fifth victory at this race and second-most all-time. It can tie Stewart-Haas for the most wins by claiming the 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix checkered flag on Sunday, and Hendrick's Kyle Larson is the 11-2 favorite.
The latest 2024 Shriners Children's 500 odds have Byron as the third-favorite at 15-2, with Ryan Blaney sandwiched in between at 7-1. Ross Chastain (10-1) could attract plenty of 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix bets after winning the championship race at this track last year. The green flag drops on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Before scouring the 2024 Shriners Children's 500 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Shriners Children's 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season last week with Larson in Las Vegas again, scoring a 21-5 payout for SportsLine subscribers. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 16 winners since 2021, including nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 Shriners Children's 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard.
Top 2024 Shriners Children's 500 predictions
For the 2024 Shriners Children's 500, the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's a 12-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Few can match the success of Logano at Phoenix who has three career victories at the track. Over his last 10 NASCAR at Phoenix starts, Logano has seven top 10s and two more that just missed with 11th-place finishes. His average finish of 8.5 at the track since the start of 2021 is third-best amongst all drivers.
Logano's success is part of the overall domination by Team Penske at Phoenix as it has placed at least one driver in the top five in each of the last 11 races at the track. Meanwhile, Logano has had a similar level of achievement on 1-mile tracks as a whole, as over the last three years, he ranks second in both victories and in top 5s on circuits of this distance. Logano's tough start to this season has played a part in his long odds for this race, but his overwhelmingly positive track history makes him deserving of being included in 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix picks.
Another massive shocker: William Byron, one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Shriners Children's 500 starting lineup. Byron led NASCAR with six victories in 2023 and captured his first Daytona 500 victory earlier this season.
He's an 11-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series, but he's lost track position in his last two races, starting 11th and finishing 17th in Atlanta then starting fourth and finishing 10th last week in Las Vegas. Byron won the spring race in Phoenix last year, but finished a disappointing fourth after starting first with the title on the line last fall and was outside the top five in his first 10 Cup starts there. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR Phoenix odds longer than 10-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Shriners Children's 500 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard, all from the model that has called 16 winners.
2024 Shriners Children's 500 odds, drivers, lineup
See full NASCAR at Phoenix picks at SportsLine
Kyle Larson 11-2
Ryan Blaney 7-1
William Byron 15-2
Denny Hamlin 8-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
Christopher Bell 10-1
Kyle Busch 11-1
Martin Truex Jr. 11-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Tyler Reddick 12-1
Chase Elliott 16-1
Ty Gibbs 16-1
Chase Briscoe 20-1
Chris Buescher 20-1
Brad Keselowski 25-1
Bubba Wallace 35-1
Alex Bowman 40-1
Daniel Suarez 75-1
Josh Berry 75-1
Noah Gragson 100-1
Ryan Preece 100-1
Erik Jones 100-1
Michael McDowell 100-1
Austin Dillon 150-1
Austin Cindric 150-1
Corey Lajoie 200-1
John Hunter Nemechek 300-1
Carson Hocevar 300-1
Zane Smith 500-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 500-1
Harrison Burton 500-1
Daniel Hemric 750-1
Justin Haley 750-1
Todd Gilliland 1000-1
Derek Kraus 1500-1
Kaz Grala 2000-1
