Corner Picks is coming off a fantastic weekend, thanks mainly to West Ham beating Wolverhampton 4-0. I must admit, while I wrote about why I felt that West Ham was severely underrated in the match against a Wolverhampton team that hadn't looked impressive this season, I did not see 4-0 coming. I can only wonder what the odds were on that final scoreline.
Whatever they were, Corner Picks went 2-1 last week, earning 2.52 units. More than enough to get us out of the hole we'd dug ourselves in the first two matchweeks. This week I'm back with three more plays I like quite a bit. Let's keep the momentum going.
All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
1. Leeds United vs. Manchester City: Under 3.5 (-108)
Last week I said I wouldn't be taking any unders in the immediate future, but it turns out I'm a liar because I'm taking this one. Although, depending on your definition of "immediate," maybe I'm not? Who cares! We're on the under here. Leeds is catching Manchester City at an awful time. Not only did City lose last weekend, but their defense looked awful in a 5-2 loss to Leicester City. So what do you think Pep Guardiola had his team working on in training all week? I expect keeping a clean sheet is Man City's ultimate goal in this match. Combine that with Leeds already outperforming their metrics (eight goals on an xG of 3.8), and I think City might get it.
2. Newcastle vs. Burnley: Burnley +210
Last week I took West Ham because they had been outplaying results and were going against a team that had been underplaying them. Well, guess what we have here? Using xG, Burnley should have scored 2.4 goals and allowed 2.0 in their first two matches. Instead, they've scored two and allowed five. On the other hand, Newcastle has a goal differential of -1 when their xG differential has it at -2.2. Burnley is one of the best defensive sides in the league, and Newcastle will have trouble finding the back of the net in this one. So, it's hard to pass up on the possibility of Burnley getting a win here at this price.
3. West Brom vs. Southampton: Southampton -134
Sometimes we only need to keep things simple, and that's what we're doing here. West Brom stinks. Badly. They're currently out of the relegation zone but will likely be back soon because they have an expected goal differential of -6.2 after three matches. No team in the Premier League has a lower xG on the season than West Brom's 1.7 (and that includes four teams who have only played two matches to West Brom's three), and no team has a higher xGA than the Baggies 7.9. Southhampton is far better, and this price is too good to pass up.
| Record | Units | |
|---|---|---|
Last Week | 2-1 | +2.52 |
Overall | 4-5 | +0.29 |
