Start & Sit: Top 150 for Week 12
The 76ers' decision to draft the best player available at every opportunity may have maximized their chances of drafting a superstar -- and in Joel Embiid, they have found one -- but it also led to a ticking time bomb that nearly exploded this season.
Embiid, Nerlens Noel, and Jahlil Okafor may have been the best player available at each draft spot, but as all three got over various injuries, it left the team with a crowded frontcourt and a combustible situation. Noel's preseason knee surgery allowed Okafor and Embiid to feel their way through the first month or so of the season, but Noel made his dissatisfaction with the situation well known even while rehabbing from the injury. Once he made his return, it was clear someone was going to have to be the odd-man out.
It seems like that is Okafor now. While Noel was on the losing end of the playing time divide early on, Okafor has sat out three of the last four games. The groundbound scorer just hasn't proven a good fit next to another traditional big man, and with the likes of Dario Saric and Ersan Ilyasova still needing minutes, Okafor has found himself on the outside looking in. That makes him dropable in all Fantasy formats at this point, but it has been fantastic news for Noel.
Those of you who stashed Noel while he recovered from injury were undoubtedly frustrated by his limited role early on, but you have to be absolutely thrilled with the signs he's shown lately. Noel has played 20-plus minutes in consecutive games, contributing 21 points, 12 rebounds, and eight combined blocks and steals in those games.
We know Noel can be an impact Fantasy option when healthy, and his role might only improve from this point on. The fit with Embiid still isn't ideal, especially with better floor-spacers at the four on the roster, but Embiid has also quickly morphed into the kind of player who can work with anyone. He can score from the post or in the pick-and-roll, but Embiid's ability to space the floor and work from the high post has also made it easier to see how he and Noel -- or Okafor, perhaps -- might fit together in the long run.
Noel's ceiling might still be around 25 minutes per game, but that is enough for him to make an impact for Fantasy, especially in category-based leagues. He is a rare defensive talent, and that is enough to make him worth owning across the board in Fantasy. With Embiid still set to miss back-to-back sets, Noel should be the primary big man for the 76ers on those nights, too.
Add it all up, and Noel's Fantasy value is on the rebound. At 76 percent owned in CBSSports.com leagues, he's still available in enough leagues to be worth your time.
Add These Guys
You don't want to get too excited about any of the 76ers' point guard options, but there is always a reason to be interested in whoever is manning the point for this team. They play at a fast pace and let the point guard run much of the offense, which is why we've seen the likes of Sergio Rodriguez and Jerryd Bayless shoot up the ranks of the most-added at times this season. Now, it's T.J. McConnell's turn, as he is playing 30-plus minutes per game of late. The second-year guard is averaging just 8.4 points on 8.6 field-goal attempts per game over the last five, which is pretty terrible, but you're just here for the assists, and that is where he has shined. He is averaging 8.4 per game over the last five, while turning it over just 2.2 times per game. Add in 1.4 steals per game, and McConnell looks like a very solid option. For the time being. Until it's Rodriguez's turn again.
I didn't want to view Donatas Motiejunas as a must-start player immediately upon signing with the Pelicans, because I wanted to see how he fit in. So far, so good. Motiejunas made his season debut Saturday, playing 20 minutes off the bench, and he acquitted himself well. The Pelicans used him as a fulcrum of their second-unit offense, and he responded by scoring 11 points, with five rebounds and four assists. Minutes might not be as tough for Motiejunas to come by as we might have worried, and it wouldn't be a total shock if he supplanted Terrence Jones as the team's No. 2 big man before long. Go out and get him.
In an NBA economy where Allen Crabbe gets $75 million, it's fair to say shooting is the most prized commodity on the market. This is where Marcus Smart is an outlier, because shooting is just about the only thing he doesn't do well on a basketball court. That might limit his eventual upside as a player, but it also makes him a guy with a really high floor, both for Fantasy and in real life. With some players, if the shot disappears, they really can't contribute. Smart, on the other hand, can only improve if he finds his shot, and he is riding a nice little hot streak right now, having made eight 3-pointers in three games in January. He has ridden that to 15.0 points per game, to go with 5.7 assists and 2.3 combined blocks and steals. Smart will likely cool off, but he's a useful Fantasy option even if and when he does. If this is the start of something bigger, he could really take off.
If you're looking for a long-term option with some upside, you can just go on and skip ahead here. Doug McDermott is showing flashes of improved play of late, but it's hard to expect more than marginal production from him at this point. He has scored in double-figures in five straight games and eight of 10 overall, but he really doesn't bring much else to the table, making him a low-end Fantasy option more often than not. However, Week 12 (Jan. 9-16) certainly counts as an exception to that rule at this point, with five games on the schedule for the Bulls. Even in his typical role, McDermott figures to be worthy of a starting spot for Fantasy players, but the fact that the Bulls might rest some starters in a five-games-in-seven-nights stretch makes him even more valuable. Even if you might end up dropping him next Sunday anyways.
As bereft of talent and assets as they are, the Nets need to swing for the fences in the draft, and they did that with their first-rounder this past June, taking Michigan guard Caris LeVert. LeVert was a huge risk at the time, with a history of foot injuries that could potentially derail his career before it ever gets off the ground. However, over four seasons at Michigan, LeVert proved to be an adept scorer from all over the floor, and developed into a strong playmaker from the wings as he went on. He was exactly the kind of high-risk, high-reward choice the Nets needed to make, and he showed flashes of what he can do over the weekend. LeVert, who has played 20-plus minutes in three straight games for the first time in his career, dropped 19 points, with four rebounds and five assists against the Cavs Friday. He hasn't shown he can do that with any kind of consistency, but it was a nice reminder of what LeVert might be capable of as he finds his footing. If you've got a roster spot to spare, he is a nice upside play if the Nets decide to unleash him down the road.
Cut 'Em Loose
As quick as Fantasy players are to jump on unproven players who show upside, we tend to be just as slow to give up on proven players when things start to go south. Monta Ellis brings big name value, and he averaged between 18.9 and 20.2 points per game for a whopping eight straight seasons at his peak, while filling up the box score well overall. However, he took a big step back in his first season in Indiana last year, and hasn't recovered in Year Two. In fact, Ellis recently lost his starting job, and hasn't shown much reason for Fantasy players to get excited about him with the second unit. Ellis is averaging just 6.2 points and 2.0 assists in six games off the bench, and while injuries have certainly slowed him, that is hardly enough to explain his dropoff. He just doesn't fit in Indiana, and at this point, you're chasing ghosts expecting him to rebound. There are better ways to use your roster spot, both in the short and long term.
