By almost any measure, conventional or otherwise, the Oakland Raiders have had one of the NFL's best offenses this season.
The Raiders enter their Week 9 tilt with the Denver Broncos ranking fifth in yards per game and sixth in points per game. They rank fourth in Football Outsiders' Offensive DVOA, which adjusts performance for down, distance, and opponent.
Some other measures, like points per drive (2.18, 10th) and scoring rate (38.8 percent, 11th) are indicators of an offense that is not quite elite, but still pretty good. A look at how the Raiders have performed when compared to the other teams their opponents have played this season paints a similar picture.
| OPPONENT | OAK YDS | OAK PTS | OTHER YDS | OTHER PTS |
| Saints | 486 | 35 | 382.3 | 30.0 |
| Falcons | 454 | 28 | 368.6 | 29.0 |
| Titans | 368 | 17 | 338.3 | 23.7 |
| Ravens | 261 | 28 | 308.7 | 18.5 |
| Chargers | 389 | 34 | 357.1 | 25.3 |
| Chiefs | 285 | 10 | 370.0 | 21.2 |
| Jaguars | 344 | 33 | 316.8 | 27.2 |
| Buccaneers | 626 | 30 | 350.7 | 26.5 |
| AVERAGE | 401.6 (+52.5) | 26.9 (+1.7) | 349.1 | 25.2 |
Note: Statistics for Falcons and Buccaneers current as of Week 8 and do not include their Week 9 "Thursday Night Football" matchup.
The Raiders have squared off against defenses that have allowed 25.2 points per game against the rest of the league. Interestingly, that means they have essentially faced the equivalent of the Raiders defense (25.4 points per game allowed) on a week-to-week basis -- and that hasn't exactly been the most challenging unit to put points on the board against (the Raiders are 22nd in points per game allowed).
That shows that they've benefited on some level from facing a fairly poor slate of opposing defenses, but their plus-1.7 points per game performance shows they have still outperformed expectations against those defenses. Again, this points toward an offense that has been good, but not quite great.
Way too much laundry on the field
So what's been holding them back from the truly elite level?
First, penalties. Oakland has committed 48 offensive penalties, an average of six per game. Unsurprisingly, that's the most in the league -- and it's not really close. The Raiders also lead the league in offensive penalty yards, with 401. Again, it's not a close call.
Those issues have too often kept the Raiders behind schedule during their drives -- it's largely why they have faced the second-longest average third downs of any team in football at 8.45 yards. The average team has had 11 or more yards to go on 20.3 percent of its third downs; the Raiders have had 11 or more yards to go on 28.8 percent of theirs.
Real story behind those offensive numbers
Conversely, the Raiders have had 3 or fewer yards to go on only 22 percent of their third down tries, while the league at large averages 27.1 percent. As a result, Oakland is just 21st in third-down conversion rate, which is a big reason why an offense that puts up a ton of yards and is incredibly efficient (6.1 yards per play, third in the NFL) doesn't score quite as much as one might expect it to. Again, only 38.8 percent of their drives have ended in points, the 11th-highest figure in the league.
Even the points the Raiders have scored can be described as somewhat fortunate. Their average drive has begun 69.7 yards from the end zone, fifth-best in the NFL. The Raiders have also had 98 meaningful drives, second-most in the league behind only the Cardinals. Start enough drives close enough to scoring territory and you're going to put some crooked numbers on the board.
Not only that, but they're one of 12 teams that has yet to miss an extra point try this season. They've also made every field goal try from inside 50 yards while going 3 of 8 from 50-plus -- so they've gained around three points over expectation from their kicking game.
On the other hand, the Raiders are one of 11 teams that has yet to score a defensive or special teams touchdown, so you can argue that they've missed out on around seven points in that sense.
Still, all of that is somewhat nitpicky. The Raiders have indeed taken a large step forward offensively this season. They've raised their scoring average 4.5 points per game -- only five teams have increased their scoring by a greater margin over last year's figure. They've also jumped from 18th to fourth in offensive DVOA -- only four teams have seen a greater rise up the charts.
Carr is driving the Raiders
The play of quarterback Derek Carr has gotten the most attention as the driving force behind the improvement, and his play could certainly be seen as an avatar for the offense as a whole. Carr has massive counting numbers -- he's 214 of 323 for 2,321 yards, 17 touchdowns, and three interceptions. The 323 attempts are most in the league, the 214 completions are tied for third, as are the 17 touchdowns, and the 2,321 yards are fifth. Drill a little bit deeper, and Carr is 10th in completion percentage and 19th in yards per attempt.
Carr has benefited from great protection, allowing him to work from a clean pocket more than almost any quarterback in the league. Per Pro Football Focus, he has been pressured on only 24.3 percent of his dropbacks, second-fewest behind only Drew Brees. When he has been pressured, though, Carr has shown great improvement over last season's performance in almost every area.
| YEAR | PRESSURE % | COMP | ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | RTG |
| 2015 | 29.6% | 75 | 145 | 51.7% | 1068 | 7.4 | 7 | 6 | 75.7 |
| 2016 | 24.3% | 38 | 68 | 55.9% | 464 | 6.8 | 3 | 1 | 85.7 |
He's made an equal leap on throws where the offensive line kept his pocket clean and free of opposing rushers.
| YEAR | NO PRESSURE % | COMP | ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPA | TD | INT | RTG |
| 2015 | 70.4% | 270 | 422 | 64.0% | 2858 | 6.8 | 25 | 7 | 96.5 |
| 2016 | 75.7% | 176 | 255 | 69.0% | 1857 | 7.3 | 14 | 2 | 105.0 |
When he's able to stand tall in the pocket and show off his huge arm to make plays down the field, they look so beautiful that when you see them on RedZone TV on Sundays it sometimes seems as though all the Raiders do is chuck it and rack up big plays.
However, that's not exactly true.
Carr mostly works the short areas of the field, content to take what the defense gives him until the deep ball does open up. His 7.9 air yards per throw rank 26th among 34 qualified passers, per Pro Football Focus, and 63.5 percent of his passes have been thrown to receivers within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He's worked that area efficiently, completing 81.0 percent of his passes and keeping the chains moving.
The key to Carr's work on downfield passes is that on the rare occasions he's thrown them, he's connected more often than not. Only 27 of Carr's 323 attempts have been thrown at least 20 yards downfield; that 8.4 percent rate is 32nd among the aforementioned 34 qualified passers. However, his 14 completions on such passes are tied for seventh, and his five touchdowns are tied for fourth. Add in the two passes that have been dropped, and only three quarterbacks have been more accurate on deep throws.
Cooper and Crabtree are keepers
When Carr does take a shot, it's incredibly likely Amari Cooper will be the one hauling it in. Cooper has eight catches on 12 deep targets, per PFF. Only two receivers (A.J. Green and T.Y. Hilton) have more and nobody with at least six deep targets has a higher catch rate. Cooper's overall numbers have shown great improvement this year, just as Carr's have. His catch rate is up nearly 10 percentage points and he's snaring two more passes for 31.5 additional yards per game. His 52-787-2 line puts him on pace for a 104-1,574-4 season. The list of players with a 100-catch, 1,500-yard season within their first two years in the NFL is exactly one player long: only Isaac Bruce has ever done it. Cooper's headed toward doubling the size of the list.
It would be one thing if Cooper was Carr's only high-level target, but he's not. While Cooper stretches the field vertically and horizontally, Michael Crabtree (and to a certain extent, Seth Roberts) works the short and intermediate areas of the field, and does particularly well at it in the red zone. Crabtree has 47 catches for 569 yards and had an NFL-high six touchdown grabs until Mike Evans passed him Thursday night. Four of those six touchdowns came in the red zone, while the other two were 21- and 23-yarders. He's undoubtedly Carr's go-to guy in close, and that connection has worked wonders.
Oakland's biggest test yet: Denver
This week, that trio will face its toughest test of the season. The Broncos defense is relatively unlikely to have Aqib Talib (back) on the field for Sunday's game, but Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roby will still be out there. Not only that, but the Broncos' pass rush is back at full strength with last week's return of DeMarcus Ware.
The Broncos ranked first in the NFL in pressure rate (44.3 percent, per PFF) despite Ware sitting out Weeks 3 through 7. The combination of Ware, Von Miller, Shane Ray, and Shaquil Barrett is nigh impossible for an offensive line to deal with, even one as good as the Raiders'. How that group holds up will go a long way toward determining if Carr has enough time to sit in the pocket and let Cooper, Crabtree, and the rest of his targets shake open down the field.
They'll have a tough enough time doing that against Denver's secondary if Carr has time, but it will be even more difficult if he doesn't. There's a reason the Broncos have routinely turned even excellent offenses into middling ones.
| OPPONENT | DEN YDS | DEN PTS | OTHER YDS | OTHER PTS |
| Panthers | 333 | 20 | 397.0 | 28.5 |
| Colts | 253 | 20 | 375.9 | 26.9 |
| Bengals | 332 | 17 | 404.4 | 21.4 |
| Buccaneers | 215 | 7 | 374.5 | 24.0 |
| Falcons | 372 | 23 | 432.9 | 34.1 |
| Chargers | 265 | 21 | 382.0 | 30.8 |
| Texans | 271 | 9 | 319.3 | 18.2 |
| Chargers | 369 | 19 | 382.0 | 30.8 |
| AVERAGE | 301.3 (-82.2) | 17.0 (-9.8) | 383.5 | 26.8 |
Note: Statistics for Falcons and Buccaneers current as of Week 8 and do not include their Week 9 "Thursday Night Football" matchup.
Looking at this chart, you might notice that the Broncos have turned opposing offenses that are otherwise basically equivalent of what the Raiders have done this year (26.9 points per game) into the equivalent of the lowly Rams offense (17.1 points per game). They've held all eight of their opponents to scores at least four points below their season average.
This is not new. They did it all last season as well, and rode that lockdown ability all the way to a Super Bowl. If the Raiders want to come away with a win Sunday night and keep control of the AFC West, they'll have to be one of the first teams to buck the trend.
