From the moment Floyd Mayweather defeated Manny Pacquiao -- two years ago this week -- in a superfight that took more than five frustrating years to come to fruition, boxing fans instantly identified the next big event on the horizon.
Yet for all the hope that Mexican sensation Canelo Alvarez would move up in weight to challenge unified middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin in the biggest fight the sport could make, things remain fairly uncertain 24 months later.
Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) has shown plenty of interest verbally, but both he and promoter Oscar De La Hoya of Golden Boy have strategically failed to follow through despite their steady teasing, instead accepting a series of big paydays against smaller opponents.
The public perception, almost exclusively negative, has been a mixture of the following themes: 1) Alvarez is scared, 2) Golden Boy is too dependent financially upon Alvarez winning to place him in such a dangerous fight, and 3) Canelo is waiting for Golovkin, now 35, to get old.
However you slice it, the window for Alvarez-Golovkin to maximize its potential commercially is slowly closing, as is the patience of fans to care so passionately. It all combines to make Alvarez's return on Saturday in an all-Mexican showdown with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (HBO pay-per-view, 9 p.m. ET) in Las Vegas all the more interesting in terms of what happens next.
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After years of spurning Glolovkin with the excuse that he's not a real middleweight (despite the fact that he captured the division's lineal championship by defeating Miguel Cotto in 2015), Alvarez will make a considerable leap from his highest weight of 155 pounds to face Chavez (50-2-1, 32 KOs), who has fought as high as light heavyweight, at a catchweight of 164.5 pounds.
If Alvarez wins, the fight would be seen as the perfect warmup to a showdown with GGG, especially considering Alvarez, 26, has said he will campaign at 160 pounds moving forward. All of this is potential good news for Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs), who has spent the last two years keeping busy while waiting on Alvarez, delaying what is viewed as an eventual move up to 168 pounds.
Considering Alvarez's lineal predecessors, Sergio Martinez and Cotto, openly showed zero interest in facing GGG from the beginning, Alvarez quickly became the career-defining opportunity available to Golovkin's career and his largest possible money fight. GGG recently doubled down on the prospect when he scrapped plans for a June unification fight against Billy Joe Saunders in Kazakhstan to preserve himself for Alvarez.
In a way, that was GGG's all-in moment, which makes him not just the most interested observer in Saturday's fight but easily the most invested individual in the result, despite the fact that he won't be competing in the ring.
Golovkin has been through this charade before, of course, when he was called up into the ring after Alvarez's knockout of Amir Khan last May and emphatically challenged to a fight that still hasn't happened. One week later, Alvarez gave up his middleweight title to avoid having to face GGG, his mandatory opponent, riding off on an excuse saddled horse into his own hypocritical sunset.
Whether or not Golovkin actually increased his chances of landing an Alvarez fight by looking human for the first time in a close decision win over Daniel Jacobs in March remains to be seen. But Alvarez, the sport's reigning pay-per-view king, will first need to defeat Chavez before he could embark on an even bigger fight: to save his own reputation.
It wasn't that long ago where Alvarez was constantly praised for his "dare to be great" mentality by seeking out a difficult challenge against Floyd Mayweather at just 23 and defying the advice of his own promoter to face difficult southpaws Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara when he didn't need to. But Alvarez seemed to learn a lot more from his loss to Mayweather than what happened inside the ring -- he learned how to be in control of the business side of the game.
Alvarez's nearly four-year run since the Mayweather fight has brought him millions of dollars but it has slowly chipped away at his credibility, especially considering he has yet to face an opponent bigger than him, who brings more punching power to the table. But by agreeing to face Chavez now, Alvarez has done his own version of going all in as it pertains to a Golovkin fight.
If Alvarez wins on Saturday, he will be officially out of excuses for Golovkin. Gone will be the ability to negotiate a fight below the 160-pound limit against him or hide behind any claim that he's not big enough to contend with GGG.
The window is still open for Alvarez-Golovkin to become the kind of superfight that mesmerizes the sport in a way that Mayweather-Pacquaio was unable to achieve. But it won't stay that way, and while an Alvarez victory on Saturday is needed in order for us to get there, a change of heart is just as necessary.
It's almost time for Alvarez to fight or get off the throne.
