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It should be an exciting atmosphere Thursday evening when the Florida Gators (6-6) take on the UCF Knights (8-4) in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa, Fla. With both schools located nearby, the game is a sellout and could have one of the best crowds of the 2021-22 college football bowl season. Gus Malzahn got off to a bit of a slow start at UCF, but the Knights won five of their last six down the stretch. He'll look to get to nine wins by knocking off a foe he knows well from his days in the SEC. Florida, meanwhile, has replaced Dan Mullen with Billy Napier, but interim head coach Greg Knox will lead the Gators in this one. 

Kickoff at Raymond James Stadium slated for 7 p.m. ET. The latest Florida vs. UCF odds from Caesars Sportsbook lists the Gators as 6.5-point favorites. The over-under for total points is down to 55.5 after opening at 56.5. Before locking in any Florida vs. UCF picks or Gasparilla Bowl 2021 predictions, be sure to check out the betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters the second week of the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-30 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on UCF vs. Florida and locked in its Gasparilla Bowl 2021 picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's CFB picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for Florida vs. UCF: 

  • UCF vs. Florida spread: Gators -6.5
  • UCF vs. Florida over-under: 55.5 points 
  • UCF vs. Florida money line: Gators -260, Knights +210
  • UCF: The Knights are 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 games 
  • FLA: The total has gone under in six of the Gators' last nine games
Featured Game | Florida Gators vs. UCF Knights

Why UCF can cover

The Knights haven't been super successful ATS this year, but the Gators have been outright horrendous against the number. Florida has failed to cover in six consecutive games. Florida went 0-5 ATS on the road this season, so getting the job done at a neutral venue could be challenging.

UCF is only 4-8 ATS overall but has covered three times in its previous six games. The Knights won straight up in five of those contests. Mikey Keene has held down the fort under center with Dillon Gabriel out, and the Knights have been just as productive as the Gators on offense. They average 32.2 points per game and have amassed 28 passing touchdowns with 25 rushing scores. Florida could need to break out of its offensive slump to cover. The Gators have scored 24 points or less in four of their last five games.

Why Florida can cover

Florida is a below-average 3-9 ATS but could benefit from facing a UCF team that's floundered as underdogs this year. The Knights are 0-2 straight up and ATS as underdogs. They lost both contests by at least 27 points, and the Gators could take advantage of that weakness.

The Gators are in a scoring slump but can depend on their dynamic signal-caller to get them out of it. Emory Jones has thrown for 2,563 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2021. He's also rattled off 697 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Jones has contributed to multiple touchdowns in five games, and the Gators won four of those contests by double-digits. 

How to make UCF vs. Florida picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 56 points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the model's Florida vs. UCF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins UCF vs. Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl 2021? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up almost $3,600 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.