The Six Pack: LSU-Mississippi State, Michigan-Michigan State the best college football picks

The Six Pack went 4-2 last week, which is what we hope is our baseline heading forward through the rest of the season. The two losses were taking Wisconsin (+8.5) at Michigan and Wyoming (+18) against Fresno State. Of those two, the only one I feel stupid about was taking Wyoming. In hindsight, I should have seen how difficult the Cowboys would find it to put up points on Fresno, but I got caught up in looking at such a large spread with a low point total.

I assure you, it won't happen again. Now let's get to this week's picks.

Games of the week

No. 22 Mississippi State (+6.5) at No. 5 LSU: I'm guilty of underestimating LSU this season. I called LSU the most overrated team in the SEC during our season previews, and the Tigers have shown to be anything but. That said, I think they're being a little overvalued in this spot coming off a huge win against Georgia last week. As good as the LSU defense has been this season, Mississippi State's actually been better in a few key areas. It gives up fewer points per play, fewer yards per play, has a much higher sack rate, averages more tackles for loss per game and gets off the field on third down more frequently. All of which leads me to believe we'll see a lower-scoring affair in this one with LSU having a hard time pulling away without forcing numerous turnovers. LSU 24, Mississippi State 20

No. 12 Oregon (+3.5) at No. 25 Washington State: Last week, I took Oregon to cover as a dog at home against Washington and wrote about how I made the mistake of not trusting this Ducks team against Stanford a few weeks before. Well, now I find Oregon as an underdog yet again, though this time on the road, but that's not going to stop me from taking it once more. Washington State's a good team, as it's 5-1 and finds itself in this week's AP Top 25.

If we take a closer look at this Cougars team, however, we see that its five wins have come against Wyoming, San Jose State, Eastern Washington, Utah and Oregon State. While Eastern Washington is 5-2, and Utah is 4-2, those other three are a combined 3-16. It's a good team but not one I'm ready to trust as a favorite against the Ducks just yet, particularly a Ducks team that has already beaten Washington and should have beaten Stanford. Also, the fact the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two only inflates my confidence. Oregon 37, Washington State 34

Lock of the week

Memphis (+10) at Missouri: This number is just too big! Missouri has one of the worst defenses in the country as it ranks 100th in the nation allowing 0.477 points per play. That doesn't bode well going up against a Memphis offense that ranks 5th nationally with 0.618 points per play itself. Missouri's offense ranks 68th, and while it'll find life a lot easier against the Memphis defense than it does most teams it runs into in the SEC, this game will be more of a track meet than anything. If I can get 10 points in a game that will likely come down to which team has the ball last, I'm going to take them. Missouri 42, Memphis 38

Under of the week

No. 6 Michigan at No. 24 Michigan State (Under 41.5): The funny thing about low totals like this one is that they're usually this low for a reason, but most people are scared to take the under. I'm not. This game was born to be an under. These two teams have stout defenses and offenses that never seem to be in a hurry to score points or run plays. Combine that with a forecast currently calling for high winds in East Lansing, Michigan, and it's not going to be easy to find points on Saturday. Michigan 20, Michigan State 13

Blue blood of the week

USC (+7) at Utah: Doesn't this line seem off to you? It's not that Utah isn't a good team, because it is one, but should it be nearly a touchdown favorite against USC? Even at home? Particularly when we're talking about a USC team that's improved a bit in recent weeks. This isn't the same team that looked helpless against Stanford and fell apart against Texas; it's won three in a row, including games against Washington State and Colorado. If this game were being played a month ago, I'd likely take the Utes, but right now I'm on the Trojans. USC 27, Utah 24

Clock-churner of the week

Houston at Navy (Under 60.5): While Houston doesn't run the ball nearly as often as Navy does, the Cougars have proven to be one of the more efficient rushing offenses in the country. They're averaging an even 6 yards per carry on the ground and 238.4 yards rushing per game. That combined with Navy running the ball and bleeding the clock, as well as high winds that could lead to Houston running the ball more often than it usually does, means this total is set too high. Houston 38, Navy 14

SportsLine pick of the week

No. 16 NC State at No. 3 Clemson: Clemson is hosting NC State this week in a battle of ACC unbeatens, and the Tigers are currently 16.5-point favorites with the total set at 56. I have a strong play for the game available for SportsLine subscribers that can be found here.