Recruiting is filled with failure.
Let’s not forget that basic tenet as the fax machines start whirring Wednesday on National Signing Day. Like suds on a beer, (some) marriages and the Ford Pinto, nothing is forever.
As much we celebrate the term “five-star,” there should be equal weight given to “bust.” The entire process is filled with uncertainty. Forty percent of the top quarterbacks in the last six years have transferred. For starters.
You want to be recruiting expert? There, I just made you one.
We’re here to save the (signing) day. Look at the top of the 10 rankings. At the top -- for a while -- the self-anointed gurus seem to have gotten it right.
If you’re perusing that list today, odds are you’re looking at multiple future national champions. How’s that for past performance guaranteeing future success, hedge fund managers?
Just for grins, we went back 15 years to evaluate the top 10 in the 247Sports Composite team rankings each recruiting season.
There was an average 3.3 teams in that top 10 each year that would at least play for a national championship in the next four years. That’s one-third of the top recruiting classes evaluated in those 15 cycles (2001-15).
The range went from one such team (USC in 2005) to five (in 2002, 2004 and 2011). Admittedly, the sample size is small. Only 15 teams have played for a championship since 2001. Only eight have won. The point remains: The recruiters have gotten it (somewhat) right.
Those 15 top-10 recruiting lists include every team that has played for a title since 2001 except two -- Nebraska in 2001 and Michigan State in 2015.
Conclusion: You finish in the top 10, there’s a good chance all that work, all those texts, all that hype are going to pay off with a shot at a championship.
| Win Recruiting, Win Championships | |
| Since 2001, one-third of the teams finishing in the top 10 of the 247Sports Composite team rankings have played for a national championship within four years. | |
| Year | Teams (ranking) that played for championship |
| 2001 | 4: LSU (2), Oklahoma (5), Ohio State (6), Miami (8) |
| 2002 | 5: Texas (1), Ohio State (4), Miami (5), Oklahoma (6), USC (8) |
| 2003 | 4: USC (2), LSU (3), Oklahoma (6), Texas (8) |
| 2004 | 5: USC (2), LSU (3), Florida (5), Oklahoma (8), Texas (9) |
| 2005 | 1: USC (1) |
| 2006 | 4: Florida (2), Texas (5), Oklahoma (8), LSU (9) |
| 2007 | 3: Florida (1), LSU (5), Auburn (10) |
| 2008 | 2: Alabama (3), Florida (6) |
| 2009 | 2: LSU (1), Alabama (2) |
| 2010 | 3: Alabama (5), Auburn (6), Florida State (7) |
| 2011 | 5: Alabama (1), Florida State (2), Auburn (5), Ohio State (7), Notre Dame (9) |
| 2012 | 3: Alabama (1), Florida State (3), Ohio State (5) |
| 2013 | 3: Alabama (1), Ohio State (2), Auburn (10) |
| 2014 | 3: Alabama (1), Ohio State (3), Florida State (4) |
| 2015 | 3: Alabama (1), Auburn (8), Clemson (9) |
That’s good news in 2016 for the likes of Clemson, Notre Dame and Ole Miss. While this year’s top 10 isn’t finalized yet, those schools -- all with long championship droughts -- have been hovering around the top this recruiting season. Look close over the years and you can actually see how championship teams were built. The 2002 top 10 included overall No. 1 Texas (2005 national champs), No. 4 Ohio State, (2002 champs), No. 5 Miami (2002 runner-up), No. 7 Oklahoma (runner-up in both 2003 and 2004) and No. 8 USC (2003-04 champions, 2005 runner-up to Texas).
Florida finished inside the top 10 three out of four years in the middle of winning titles in 2006 and 2008. Alabama started showing up in 2008, finishing in the top four eight consecutive seasons. Ranked No. 5 nationally heading into Wednesday, the Tide could finish with their lowest ranking since Nick Saban arrived. You feeling sorry?
Of course you’re not, which leads us to the dark side of the rankings. They are not merely a reflection of the obvious. There have been some busts too at the top. Georgia was listed in the top 10 in 13 of the 15 years without sniffing a championship. Tennessee was there nine times. Michigan appeared eight times.
Bright futures remain for all three but, hey, this is signing day. Let’s not forget: Failure always remains an option.
