It stinks that Cam Newton is hurt, and it’s fun that Marshawn Lynch wants to come back to the NFL. But these aren’t players to target for your Fantasy team this season.
Start with Newton, who will undergo surgery March 30 to repair a partially torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder. He won’t resume throwing at all for three months and won’t throw with the team for four months, which means he’s questionable to return for the start of training camp. Thankfully, he should be ready for Week 1.
Newton has been a good Fantasy quarterback for most of his career, and he was No. 1 in 2015 when he passed for 3,837 yards, 35 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and ran for 636 yards and 10 touchdowns. But he took a steep step back last season with 3,509 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions and 359 rushing yards and five touchdowns. That made him the No. 19 Fantasy quarterback in standard leagues.
Coach Ron Rivera already said he wanted Newton to run less this year, which was his best Fantasy asset, and now his passing could be further compromised coming off shoulder surgery. Keep in mind he’s a career 58.4 percent passer, and he just lost a valuable weapon in free agency with Ted Ginn’s departure to New Orleans.
I’d settle for Newton as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy quarterback with a late-round pick, but I’d prefer to draft him as a No. 2 option. I have him ranked No. 13, and I’m not optimistic about his outlook this year.
As for Lynch, we still have to wait for him to officially return after his retirement last season. The rumored destination is Oakland to play for his hometown Raiders, but first Seattle has to release him.
The only redeeming value I see for him playing in Oakland is the Raiders have a stout offensive line, and he could step into the role vacated by Latavius Murray, which resulted in 195 carries for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. But he would also have to compete with Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington for touches, and his upside could be limited. I’d be fine with Lynch in Round 6 or later, but Fantasy owners are going to gravitate toward Lynch around Round 4.
Name value and opportunity will make him attractive, but keep in mind he’ll be 31 in April and just took a year off, even if he appears to be in relatively good shape. The last time we saw Lynch was 2015 with the Seahawks when he played only seven games due to injury and finished with 111 carries for 417 yards and three touchdowns and 13 catches for 80 yards, which was easily his worst year in Seattle.
If he’s your No. 3 Fantasy running back then he’s worth the risk, but you have to get him at the right price. And it’s doubtful that will happen since Fantasy owners have proven to be “just about that action, boss” when it comes to drafting Lynch.
As for this week’s mailbag, you know the drill by now. Keep sending me your offseason questions on Twitter @jameyeisenberg or on my Facebook page, and please use the hashtag #fantasymail.
For this week, we’re going to cover the following topics:
- Are there any Jets worth drafting this year?
- Better keeper, Davante Adams or Terrelle Pryor?
- Would you trade Rob Gronkowski for Keenan Allen?
- Deep sleepers at wide receiver
- Tight ends to target late in drafts
From Twitter ...
Yes, there are several Jets worth drafting this year, but you just have to get them at the right price. As of now, it would be a surprise to see any Jets player drafted in the first four rounds in most 12-team leagues. Eric Decker should return from last year’s shoulder and hip injuries and be at least a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, even with Josh McCown as the potential starting quarterback, because he has the chance to see a hefty amount of targets with Brandon Marshall now with the Giants. And Bilal Powell or Matt Forte could be a No. 2 Fantasy running back, with Powell offering more upside since Forte appears to be old and breaking down. But you will only draft either running back as a No. 3/flex option this year.
There’s also some sleeper appeal in Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson with Marshall gone, but they are only worth a late-round flier in most leagues.
The gut reaction to this question is to say Adams since he just had a breakout season and has the better quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Adams had 75 catches for 997 yards and 12 touchdowns on 121 targets last year, and he could be poised for even better things this year now that he’s earned Rodgers’ trust. But Jordy Nelson is still the No. 1 receiver in Green Bay, and Randall Cobb could bounce back from last year’s down season, along with the addition of Martellus Bennett as a free agent to replace Jared Cook.
There are a lot of mouths to feed for the Packers compared to what Pryor has to deal with in Washington, which just lost DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon in free agency. Pryor was great last season with 77 catches for 1,007 yards and four touchdowns on 139 targets, but he had junk for quarterback play with the Browns. He could also take a big leap in his production playing with Kirk Cousins, and that might make him more appealing as a keeper compared to Adams.
I’m sticking with my gut here and going with Adams, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Pryor has the better year.
We had a discussion on a recent podcast about both of these players because both have unknowns. Allen has been injured each of the past two seasons with a fluke injury in 2015 (lacerated kidney) and a torn ACL last year, and he’s played nine games since 2014. Gronkowski is coming off back surgery last season, which limited him to eight games, and he hasn’t played 16 games since 2011.
Gronkowski offers more upside because of his ability to dominate tight ends when healthy, and this trade feels like a steal in your favor. Allen could be great if he’s healthy, but the Chagers have a more robust receiving corps now compared to when Allen went down in Week 1 last year with the emergence of Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry, along with Antonio Gates, which should allow Philip Rivers to spread the ball around. Tom Brady has that same option with the addition of Brandin Cooks to go with Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, but you know Brady will still feature Gronkowski as much as possible, especially in the red zone.
You’ll be thrilled accepting this trade if Gronkowski plays at least 13 games and dominates as he usually does when healthy.
It doesn’t appear like Carroo will have a major Fantasy impact this season with the Dolphins bringing back Kenny Stills as a free agent to go with Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, as well as the addition of tight end Julius Thomas. If you’re talking about Carroo as a deep sleeper then we’re beyond the more notable sleeper receivers like Corey Coleman, John Brown, Cameron Meredith, Pierre Garcon and Adam Thielen, among others. Some other guys to consider are Josh Doctson, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Devin Funchess, Ginn and Enunwa.
We’ll get into more about those receivers throughout the offseason, as well as the incoming rookies, but they could make an impact this year with late-round picks, especially in deeper leagues.
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There are 12 tight ends that I like this year as starters, and the last four in my rankings of that group are, in order, Cameron Brate, Tyler Eifert, Henry and Jack Doyle. Aside from Eifert, the other three were drafted in Round 8 or later in our latest 12-team standard mock draft. The guys who went after that were Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen and Ladarius Green, and Fleener could rebound after last year’s down season now that Cooks is out of New Orleans. I also like Thomas as a sleeper with the Dolphins, and two late-round targets are Tyler Higbee with the Rams and Austin Hooper with the Falcons.
Don’t reach for a tight end this year if there’s no one you’re in love with, and you should have some good options with late-round picks, especially if incoming rookies O.J. Howard and David Njoku end up in good situations following the NFL Draft.