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USATSI

This year, there is a clear-cut No. 1 storyline at Augusta National for the 2022 Masters -- by about 28 miles over the runner-up storyline -- and then a hundred smaller narratives battling it out thereafter. Tiger Woods is still slated to tee it up at Augusta National on Thursday, though he remains a game-time decision. Still, if he is on the field list when Thursday rolls around, it will be the most remarkable thing to happen this week (and possibly this year) short of Hideki Matsuyama putting the green jacket on a 64-year-old Bernhard Langer on Sunday evening.

Interestingly, though a lot has happened in the first quarter of the year, there has not been a glut of storylines to discuss as it relates to the first major of the year. Part of that is a No. 1 player in the world (Scottie Scheffler) who folks still have some questions about, and part of it is undoubtedly the fact that only one other top 10 player in the world (Cameron Smith) has won an event this calendar year.

Still, there are a ton of smaller narratives to discuss that could end up being through lines for the week. Rory McIlroy's grand slam bid, for example, and even Jordan Spieth's most recent drop off and how it will affect the most prolific Masters golfer in history. The course itself -- not to mention the folks who will fill it -- is also an intriguing subplot.

Let's take a look at all of those and more as we head into the 86th Masters and a week that will undoubtedly be full of more drama than we could even imagine right now.

The storyline -- Tiger's (possible) return: It almost feels like a separate event altogether. One broadcaster I spoke with the other day said he was excited about a potential return for Big Cat because it would be cool if every human on the planet was tuned into featured groups on Thursday. Whether Tiger, who announced on Tuesday that he is planning to make his grand return at Augusta National this week, is capable of contention has absolutely no effect on this storyline because even putting a peg in the ground on Thursday morning will engender more interest than most of the rest of the tournament combined. It will be a celebration of life in general and of the life of someone who could have lost his in that car accident in February 2021. It will also be the celebration of someone who has infused this sport with more life both at this event and generally across the arc of his career than perhaps anyone who came before him and maybe anyone who comes after him, too. So, yeah, I'm not sure Hideki Matsuyama's bid for a repeat Masters win can measure up to that. Also, not that anyone will care, but Woods will be putting his streak of 21 straight made Masters cuts as a pro on the line by playing in this event. 

1. Mending Matsuyama: Speaking of last year's champion, after a tremendous start to the year, he skipped The Players Championship with an injury and withdrew from last week's Texas Open with one as well. He has not finished an event since the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and it appears that any inkling that he might become the fourth golfer to win back-to-back Masters (Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Woods are the others) seems to be slipping through his fingers.

2. Course changes: One of the reasons the Masters has aged so well is that Augusta National is always tweaking things. Whether its a new press center or a revamped merchandise area, the future is always being considered. This year, it was the course itself. The right side of the fairway on No. 11 was opened up, and the tee boxes on both No. 11 and No. 15 were moved back. Rory McIlroy said, at least for No. 11, it would create more difficulty.

"The green complexes are the same, but the surrounds of the green are much more penal so that sort of bail-out to the right is much more difficult than it used to be," said McIlroy. Overall, I think it's going to play tougher than it has in previous years, and it was already one of the toughest holes on the course."

There could be other (much smaller) changes as well such as the removal of some of the second cut from the course, which as Andy Johnson and Garrett Morrison explain here, means some shots that were slowed down from going into areas with horrible angles will now be allowed to trundle. Regardless of how much this is the case for this edition of the Masters, there are still plenty of overall course changes -- that could definitely affect the outcome of the event -- to monitor going into the week.

3. Approach play reinstated as king: With Bryson DeChambeau's recent struggles with both his game and myriad injuries, this year could be a good reminder that approach play has always been the most important factor in winning majors at Augusta. The DeChambeau mania from the last few years had convinced us that you could melt Augusta from the tee box, and while hitting it long provides an extraordinary advantage (and always will), the only way to truly unlock the lockers that hold the green jackets is by hitting it close. Statistician Justin Ray and I discussed this a few years ago, and it remains true. Hitting it deep with driver is helpful, but hitting it close with your second shots is paramount.

4. Spieth's struggles: Last year, I was sure of only one thing going into the Masters: Spieth would be a factor. He was throughout, finishing T3 with Xander Schauffele despite a horrific (for him) putting week. This time around, he's not playing anywhere near the level he was at a year ago (his current 50-round rolling strokes gained average is 0.4 strokes gained per round compared to 1.4 strokes gained per round this time last year). The salve for these performances might be a return to Augusta National where he has six top 11s in eight appearances and has lost to a total of 16 golfers in those six top 11 finishes. We've seen players reawakened by trips down Magnolia Lane before, and I'm hopeful that's the case here, but his recent form suggests that not even a jaunt down Magnolia Lane can cure what's currently plaguing him.

5. Rory's slam: I wrote about the career slam McIlroy is attempting to achieve extensively here, but I'm amazed at how little it's being talked about going into the week. Part of that is because he's missed out on it seven years in a row, and part of it is because he looked very mediocre in a missed cut last week at the Texas Open. Maybe the roar had to diminish to barely a whisper for McIlroy to feel comfortable enough to go into this weird week free to play world-class golf free from the burden of expectations, but I presume that a 67 in Round 1 will reheat the discussion that he could join Woods, Nicklaus, Gary Player, Ben Hogan and Gene Sarazen as the only men to win all four major championships.

6. King Koepka: Both McIlroy and Brooks Koepka can become the 20th golfers in history with five major championship wins, and Koepka comes in with more momentum than usual. This time a year ago, he was dragging his leg around this golf course, but he has four top 20s in his last six starts overall, three top 11s in his last four Masters starts and has been a complete and total menace at the majors over the last half decade. For some reason -- perhaps because he can come off as prickly and at least gives the impression that he doesn't care whether you like him or his game -- we underrate his major championship cachet, but the fact that he's 64 strokes better than the second-best major performer over the last six years is truly mind-boggling. A win here would mean he goes to St. Andrews looking for the grand slam and would also make every major in the near future (Rory at the Masters, Spieth at the PGA, Phil Mickelson at the U.S. Open and Koepka at The Open) a bid for the career grand slam.

7. Cameron Smith, POY? Smith has already won two of the biggest events of 2022 with a narrow victory at the Tournament of Champions and a more resounding one at The Players just a month ago. If he were to add a green jacket at a tournament where he's quietly had a ton of success (three top 10s in his last four starts here), then he would not only nearly lock up PGA Tour Player of the Year honors but also be on his way to one of the great seasons in recent memory. He's still not talked about alongside the Collin Morikawas and Jon Rahms of the world -- partly because he hasn't won a major championship yet -- but he's having a world class year that can become an all-time season with a victory here.

8. All the patrons: For the first time since Woods won in 2019 (!), we'll get to see a full Augusta National this year. I'm not sure that will affect the outcome of the actual tournament more than it did a year ago when capacity was limited, though it might affect it more than in 2020 when patrons were nonexistent. Still, it will simply be nice to hear Augusta National on the weekend the way it was meant to be heard.

9. Culmination effect: Since Jan. 1, the two best players in the world statistically are Scottie Scheffler and Smith. They have a combined five wins. The next two best are Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas. They have a combined zero wins. Both are looking for their second major championships, and they are hitting the urethane off the golf ball right now. Rahm dominated the early part of 2022, despite not winning, and J.T. the second part of the first quarter. They have a combined eight top 10s in 15 starts as well as six top 12s in the last four years here. Both are better players than not winning for the first three months of the year would suggest, and both have had better careers than having just one major on their resumes would imply.

10. Scheffler a true No.1? When Nick Saban and John Calipari crow that they're so proud of their kids because nobody believed in them throughout the year and they had a chip on their collective shoulder as a result, it's a complete fabrication and manipulation of one or two specific things that were said about them at some point along the way. Almost everybody believes in heavyweight favorites like Alabama football and Kentucky basketball. However, Scheffler can legitimately lay claim to this concept. Nobody thinks he's a poor or even mediocre player, but I'm not sure many believe he's the same caliber of No. 1 player in the world as a Dustin Johnson, Thomas or Rahm. He'll drive down Magnolia Lane with a different burden of expectation with nobody ranked ahead of him, which will be difficult, but it's also an opportunity to solidify what his new career trajectory appears to be at the moment, which is as a top 10 golfer in the world (or better) for the next several years.