Ryan Blaney may be the defending champion, but all eyes will be on the red-hot Martin Truex Jr. this weekend when the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the 2019 Bank of America Roval 400 at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. Truex Jr. has vaulted to the top of the NASCAR points standings after back-to-back victories at Las Vegas and Richmond. And with four career road-course victories, Truex Jr. knows how to get it done on the winding circuits. According to the latest 2019 Bank of America Roval 400 odds, Truex Jr. is going off Sunday as the 11-4 favorite, with Kyle Busch at 5-1. Busch is third in the standings, 24 points behind Truex Jr. and just three points behind Kevin Harvick for second. Before you make any 2019 Bank of America Roval 400 picks, be sure to check out the NASCAR at Charlotte predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model has crushed its NASCAR picks this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.'s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's huge win in the first race at Pocono. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Charlotte 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Charlotte, we can tell you the model is high on Joey Logano at 16-1. The Team Penske driver has two victories this season, with checkered flags at the Las Vegas and Michigan spring races. Logano has been consistent all season, too, with 10 top-5s and 16 top-10s. Also, Logano has led more laps (777) than both points leader Truex Jr. (755) and Harvick (759). Logano posted a 10th-place finish at last year's Bank of America Roval 400, so he clearly enjoys the Charlotte road-course layout. The model has taken all of this into account, and that's why it says Logano is a tremendous value at 16-1 on Sunday. 

And a massive shocker: Truex Jr., the Vegas favorite at 11-4, fails to get the job done. There are far better values in a loaded lineup.

Truex is obviously running really well right now and he's got a strong history at road courses, with a win this season at Sonoma and a second-place finish at Watkins Glen under his belt. However, Truex struggled at the Roval last year, finishing 14th after starting in 13th position. And that happened despite the fact that he posted two third-place finishes at Las Vegas and Richmond and led 259 laps in those two races the two weeks prior. Truex's current streak has driven his price down to a point where it's hard to see value.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Charlotte odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all, including a longshot winner. Anyone who backs this play could hit it big. You absolutely need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2019 Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Bank of America Roval 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season. 

Martin Truex Jr. 11-4
Kyle Busch 5-1
Chase Elliott 8-1
Kyle Larson 8-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Denny Hamlin 8-1
Kevin Harvick 14-1
Joey Logano 16-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Jimmie Johnson 30-1
Ryan Newman 80-1
William Byron 80-1
Alex Bowman 80-1
Matt DiBenedetto 80-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1