2019 NASCAR at Talladega odds, picks, Playoffs predictions: Model says Clint Bowyer surprises at 1000bulbs.com 500

Talladega Superspeedway has been a fixture of NASCAR for 50 years now and the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will return to the 2.66-mile tri-oval on Sunday for the 2019 1000bulbs.com 500. It's the second of two races at one of NASCAR's fastest venues and with six races remaining in the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs, the stakes will be incredibly high. Restrictor-plate racing always carries the threat of large, multi-car wrecks and that can turn the standings on its head in an instant. The green flag drops from Talladega on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET. Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are listed as 9-2 co-favorites in the latest 2019 1000bulbs.com 500 odds, but points leader Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson and Joey Logano are all just behind them at 6-1. So before you make your NASCAR at Talladega predictions, be sure to check out the 2019 1000bulbs.com 500 picks and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model has crushed its NASCAR picks this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.'s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's huge win in the first race at Pocono. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Talladega Superspeedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Talladega 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Talladega, we can tell you the model is high on Clint Bowyer, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 25-1 odds. The 40-year-old is up to 10th in the standings after three consecutive top-10 finishes. He's been on an absolute roll recently, finishing inside the top-10 in six of his last seven starts. 

Plus, Bowyer has a sensational track history at Talladega. In fact, Bowyer has two wins at Talladega and he also finished second in the fall race there a season ago. He's got a total of six top-three finishes at Talladega and he's an exceptional value on Sunday given his current form and his track knowledge.

And a massive shocker: Joey Logano, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, fails to get the job done and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in a loaded lineup. Logano has fallen all the way to ninth in the standings after leading for eight weeks earlier in the year.

He's coming off a 34th-place finish at Dover and his last time out at a superspeedway saw him finish 25th at Daytona. And while Logano has three wins at Talladega, he also has eight finishes of 24th or worse at the famed venue and is a tough buy at 6-1 given his current form.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Talladega odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs this play could hit it big. You absolutely need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2019 1000bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 1000bulbs.com 500 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 9-2
Kevin Harvick 9-2
Brad Keselowski 6-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Kyle Larson 6-1
Joey Logano 6-1
Denny Hamlin 18-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Aric Almirola 18-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Chase Elliott 25-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 50-1
Jimmie Johnson 50-1
Alex Bowman 50-1
Austin Dillon 80-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1

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