Denny Hamlin will be trying to get back into victory lane at the 2023 Daytona 500 on Sunday. Hamlin is a three-time winner at Daytona International Speedway, posting an average finishing position of 4.25 over an eight-year stretch from 2014 to 2021. However, he was involved in a crash that caused him to finish outside the top 30 last season. Caesars Sportsbook lists him as the 11-1 favorite in the 2023 Daytona 500 odds, putting him just ahead of four other drivers at 12-1.

One of the drivers priced at 12-1 is 2021 Cup Series champion Kyle Larson, who is expected to be one of the 2023 Daytona 500 contenders on Sunday. This has not been his best track, though, as he has finished no better than seventh place in nine career appearances at Daytona. Before scouring the 2023 Daytona 500 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Daytona predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s win at the Clash at the Coliseum, returning 20-1, and predicting Joey Logano's Daytona Duel victory at 8-1. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season. All told, the model has nailed a whopping eight winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 Daytona 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 Daytona 500 leaderboard.

Top 2023 Daytona 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Tyler Reddick, even though he's a 20-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Daytona odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. This will be his first race with the No. 45 Toyota at 23XI Racing after spending the last six years with Chevrolet. Reddick's new ride previously belonged to 2004 Cup Series champion Kurt Busch.

He is also inheriting a new crew chief, Billy Scott, who worked with Busch, Ty Gibbs and Daniel Hemric last season. Reddick is coming off the best season of his career, recording his first three wins at the Cup Series level. He led a career-high 503 laps along with finishing third among all drivers in wins, so he has momentum coming into the beginning of the 2023 season. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, one of the top favorites at 12-1, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2023 Daytona 500 starting lineup. Despite his 19 overall careers wins, Larson has struggled to find success at Daytona.

He's never finished higher than third in any NASCAR event at this iconic track. His 22.6 average finish position at Daytona ranks 34th among current drivers, making Larson one of the 2023 Daytona 500 favorites to avoid on Sunday. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Daytona picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Daytona odds longer than 15-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Daytona 500 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Daytona odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Daytona 500 leaderboard, all from the model that just nailed the longshot winner of the Clash at the Coliseum.

2023 Daytona 500 odds

See full 2023 Daytona 500 picks at SportsLine
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Kyle Larson 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Joey Logano 13-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
Ross Chastain 16-1
William Byron 18-1
Bubba Wallace 18-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
Brad Keselowski 18-1
Tyler Reddick 20-1
Austin Cindric 22-1
Kevin Harvick 25-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Ty Gibbs 25-1
Christopher Bell 25-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Chase Brisco 30-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Austin Dillon 30-1
Chris Buescher 30-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30-1
Aric Almirola 35-1
Ryan Preece 35-1
Jimmie Johnson 35-1
Michael McDowell 35-1
A.J. Allmendinger 40-1
Noah Gragson 45-1
Justin Haley 50-1
Austin Hill 75-1
Zane Smith 75-1
Harrison Burton 75-1
Conor Daly 100-1
Chandler Smith 100-1
Corey Lajoie 100-1
Ty Dillon 125-1
Travis Pastrana 150-1
Riley Herbst 150-1
Todd Gilliland 150-1
Cody Ware 750-1
BJ McLeod 750-1