Aric Almirola put together a streak of eight straight top-10 finishes at Talladega, including a win in 2018. However, he has placed outside the top 10 in five straight appearances since then, making him a tricky driver to consider heading into Sunday's 2023 GEICO 500, which begins at 3 p.m. ET. Almirola finished sixth last week and is a 30-1 longshot in the 2023 GEICO 500 odds at Caesars Sportsbook. Should you include him in your 2023 NASCAR at Talladega bets?
Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are the 10-1 co-favorites in the 2023 NASCAR at Talladega odds. Denny Hamlin (11-1), William Byron (12-1) and Chase Elliott (12-1) are also among the top 2023 GEICO 500 contenders. Before scouring the 2023 GEICO 500 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Talladega predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 GEICO 500 picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1) and Kyle Larson's win at Martinsville (6-1). In Austin, it called Tyler Reddick one of its best values when he won for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 10 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 GEICO 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 NASCAR at Talladega leaderboard.
Top 2023 GEICO 500 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he's a 15-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Talladega odds. Busch has had a couple of lackluster showings in his last two races, but that makes him a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. At last year's GEICO 500, Busch finished sixth in the second stage and led for three laps before finishing third overall.
In last season's race, Busch also finished with the third-highest gain rate (10.38), which measures the quality of passes based on position. He hasn't won the year's first stop at Talladega since 2008, but he has the sixth-highest driver rating at superspeedways over the last three seasons among all drivers. Busch has had success at Talladega in the past, and he's a prime candidate to bust out of his recent slump with a big win. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Joey Logano, one of the Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 GEICO 500 starting lineup. The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series champion is seventh in the NASCAR standings after five top-10 finishes in his first nine races.
However, he has been outside the top 25 on three occasions already this year and the three-time Talladega winner could not get his setup dialed with the Next-Gen Car last season on this track. Logano finished 32nd after a crash in the 2022 GEICO 500 and was 27th despite finishing on the lead lap in the 2022 YellaWood 500. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Talladega picks
The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2023 Talladega NASCAR odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the GEICO 500 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Talladega odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Talladega NASCAR leaderboard, all from the model that already called winners at the Clash, Duel, Pala Casino 400 and NOCO 400.
2023 GEICO 500 odds, lineup
See full 2023 NASCAR at Talladega picks at SportsLine
Joey Logano 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Denny Hamlin 11-1
William Byron 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Brad Keselowski 14-1
Ross Chastain 15-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
Kyle Larson 15-1
Christopher Bell 16-1
Bubba Wallace 20-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 22-1
Austin Cindric 24-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Kevin Harvick 25-1
Chris Buescher 28-1
Austin Dillon 28-1
Martin Truex Jr. 28-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Chase Briscoe 30-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Austin Hill 30-1
Daniel Suarez 30-1
Ryan Preece 45-1
A.J. Allmendinger 50-1
Corey Lajoie 50-1
Justin Haley 50-1
Michael McDowell 50-1
Todd Gilliland 60-1
Ty Gibbs 60-1
Zane Smith 75-1
Harrison Burton 75-1
Noah Gragson 75-1
Riley Herbst 125-1
Ty Dillon 250-1
JJ Yeley 1000-1
BJ McLeod 1000-1
