The 2023 Xfinity 500 will run on Sunday at Martinsville Speedway and it's the final race before the championship finale next week in Phoenix. The green flag will drop at 2 p.m. ET and Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson have already punched their tickets to the final round of the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs with victories. That leaves six drivers battling it out for two remaining spots, with William Byron and Ryan Blaney owning the inside track on points.
Byron has six wins this season and leads the NASCAR standings with a 30-point cushion over Tyler Reddick in fifth place. Byron is listed at 8-1 in the 2023 Xfinity 500 odds. Denny Hamlin is currently seventh in the standings, but as a five-time winner at "The Paperclip," he's the 3-1 favorite in the NASCAR at Martinsville odds. Before scouring the 2023 Xfinity 500 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Martinsville predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 NASCAR Martinsville picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the last four weeks as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 two weeks ago in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021.
All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 Xfinity 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Martinsville leaderboard.
Top 2023 Xfinity 500 predictions
For the 2023 Xfinity 500, the model is high on Christopher Bell, even though he's a 18-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Martinsville odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Bell is second in the standings and has already punched his ticket into the finale by way of a win last week in Miami.
It will be his second consecutive appearance in the finale after he finished third last season. Bell is now a six-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series, including a dominant victory in the fall race at Martinsville last season. He led 150 laps on his way to victory for his second career top-10 finish on the 0.526-mile oval.
And a massive shocker: The model says William Byron, one of the Vegas favorites at 8-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Xfinity 500 starting lineup. It's been a dominant season for Byron, who has captured six wins already and currently leads the NASCAR standings. However, he has work to do to punch his ticket into the finale after Larson and Christopher Bell won the first two races in the Round of 8.
Unfortunately, Byron didn't run well at Martinsville earlier this season, finishing 23rd in the spring race at "The Paperclip" despite starting eighth. He's been outside the top 20 in five of his 11 career starts there and the model advises avoiding that volatility on Sunday. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2023 NASCAR at Martinsville picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Martinsville odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Xfinity 500 2023, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Martinsville odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 NASCAR at Martinsville leaderboard, all from the model that already nailed nine winners this season.
2023 Xfinity 500 odds, drivers, lineup
See full NASCAR at Martinsville picks at SportsLine
Denny Hamlin 3-1
Kyle Larson 13-2
William Byron 8-1
Martin Truex Jr. 9-1
Brad Keselowski 9-1
Ryan Blaney 13-1
Tyler Reddick 14-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Kyle Busch 18-1
Christopher Bell 18-1
Kevin Harvick 18-1
Chase Elliott 18-1
Ty Gibbs 25-1
Chris Buescher 28-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Chase Briscoe 35-1
Bubba Wallace 35-1
Ross Chastain 35-1
Ryan Preece 40-1
Alex Bowman 40-1
Daniel Suarez 60-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Erik Jones 125-1
Todd Gilliland 250-1
A.J. Allmendinger 250-1
Carson Hocevar 250-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Michael McDowell 400-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Austin Cindric 500-1
Harrison Burton 750-1
Corey Lajoie 1500-1
Ty Dillon 3000-1
B.J. McLeod 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Ryan Newman 5000-1
