Even though the complexion of the battle to make the NASCAR playoffs seemed somewhat settled leaving Michigan, a two-race stretch of road course races before the end of the regular season promised to greatly alter that battle with potentially extreme effects. And just one race into this two-week series, that's exactly what happened.
Michael McDowell went from fighting to make the playoffs on points to earning his second career win in dominating fashion at Indianapolis, locking himself into the playoffs and leaving just three spots open for the rest of the Cup Series field. Bubba Wallace's grasp on a playoff spot went from seemingly secure to suddenly tenuous, Daniel Suarez put himself back in position to make the playoffs on points, and now even Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski don't seem completely safe.
The next twists in the playoff battle come on yet another road course, as the Cup Series heads to the Finger Lakes region of New York State and the famed Watkins Glen International for the Go Bowling at the Glen.
How to Watch the NASCAR Cup Series at Watkins Glen
Date: Sunday, Aug. 20
Location: Watkins Glen International -- Watkins Glen, N.Y.
Time: 3 p.m. ET
TV: USA Network
Stream: fubo (try for free)
What to Watch
Given last week's developments at Indianapolis, there's a great likelihood that this weekend's race will go a long way toward setting up the battle for the final playoff spots in one week's time at Daytona. That's in part because this two-week run of road course races plays directly into the strengths and weaknesses of the primary drivers fighting at the playoff cut line.
Entering Indy, Bubba Wallace had enjoyed a 55-point advantage over the cut line, with 16th-place Ty Gibbs serving as a buffer between him and the outside of the playoffs. Wallace avoided disaster at Indy and finished 18th, but McDowell's win combined with a lack of stage points took him to just 28 points above the cut line as the last driver currently in the playoffs.
All that occurred as Daniel Suarez gained 51 points thanks to a third-place finish and big chunks of stage points, cutting the gap between him and Wallace from 60 points to just 28. With road courses being among the strengths of Suarez and his Travis Mack-led crew, a repeat performance this week stands to give Suarez much more of a fighting chance to make the playoffs entering Daytona, which could make Wallace's life quite difficult unless he can step up this weekend.
But if Suarez or another driver below the cut line wins, the situation changes again. Not only would Wallace be bumped below the cut line, but Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski would go from very securely in the playoffs on points to being the two combatants in a very close battle for first above the cut line.
News of the Week
- V8 Supercars team Triple Eight Race Engineering has announced that they have released Shane van Gisbergen from his contract, allowing the three-time V8 champion and Chicago winner "to explore his dreams to race in overseas categories in 2024 and beyond." The move clears the way for Gisbergen to race in NASCAR next season, while his place at Triple Eight will be taken by Will Brown.
- Two different part-time drivers in the NASCAR Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series have been arrested in North Carolina on separate DWI charges. Longtime competitor Jason White was reportedly arrested on Aug. 3 on charges including DWI, speeding and reckless driving, while young driver Chris Hacker was arrested this past Tuesday on multiple charges including DWI. Both drivers were indefinitely suspended by NASCAR on Thursday.
- Some happy and some sad news in driver's personal lives. This week, Brad Keselowski and his wife announced that they are expecting their third child, a baby boy. Sadly, Alex Bowman has shared news of the passing of his dog, Roscoe.
Driver to Watch
In 2018, Watkins Glen was the site of Chase Elliott's long awaited breakthrough as he finally earned his first Cup Series win after three years and multiple heartbreaks along the way. Ever since then, Watkins Glen has been Elliott's near-exclusive domain.
Elliott came back the next year and dominated, leading all but 10 laps on his way to victory in 2019. Elliott then finished second in 2021 and led 29 laps in 2022, seemingly having the best car on his way to victory until Kyle Larson muscled his way past him on a restart with five laps to go, leaving him to finish fourth.
Elliott's return trip to Watkins Glen comes just in time for him, as this race carries the potential to change his entire season. While McDowell's victory at Indy put him in must-win territory, Elliott was among the frontrunners all race long last week and was closing on McDowell in the final two laps before having to settle for second. While it hasn't been since Road America in 2021 that Elliott has won on a road course, his performance at these tracks has allowed him to continue to stake a claim to being NASCAR's King of the Road -- a title he earned by winning seven times on road courses between 2018 and 2021.
This weekend, more than any other since he returned from a leg injury suffered early in the season, has the potential to turn Elliott's 2023 season on a dime. If he wins, all of his season's adversities to date are erased and he is put firmly back in play as a championship contender. If he doesn't, a win at Daytona will be his only remaining chance to keep his championship hopes' epitaph from being written.
Pick to Win
Chase Elliott (+275): For a lot of the reasons I already discussed, I'm picking Chase Elliott to win this weekend at The Glen. Not only is his record at this track immaculate over the last five years, but his performance at Indianapolis is impossible for me to dismiss. I will say, though, that you shouldn't dismiss Michael McDowell's chances of earning back-to-back wins. McDowell led 14 laps here last year on his way to finishing sixth, and his +1200 odds remain a great value for a driver coming off of what was a convincing win in the last race on a road course.
