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Last year, Austin Dillon led one lap at the Toyota Owners 400, but he still salvaged a top-10 finish. Since the start of this season, he has been up-and-down, but he climbed from 21st to a top-10 finish last weekend in Austin. Can Dillon put it together for a second consecutive week for NASCAR at Richmond and the 2022 Toyota Owners 400? Dillon's best performance at any short track in recent memory came in the 2020 at the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway.

Is Dillon worth gambling on when the NASCAR Richmond green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET? Before scouring the 2022 Toyota Owners 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 Toyota Owners 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also gone 10-5 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Then last week it was high on Ross Chastain to win, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR Richmond race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Toyota Owners 400 leaderboard.

Top 2022 Toyota Owners 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Tyler Reddick, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Richmond odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Reddick came back from a crash in Atlanta to start fourth at the Circuit of the Americas and remained competitive for a fifth-place finish. For the season, Reddick is tied with Chase Elliott for fourth in fastest laps with 60. Reddick has also been competitive throughout races the year and has a plus-46 pass differential, which should benefit him on a Richmond track that only features limited straightaways throughout.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, the Vegas favorite at 6-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this 2022 Toyota Owners 400 starting grid. Larson is coming off a historic 10-win season in which he won his first NASCAR championship and has already collected a win in 2022, but it's been a rollercoaster season for the 29-year-old.

He finished 32nd at the Daytona 500 before winning at Fontana and finishing second in Las Vegas. But in his last three races, Larson has finished 29th or worse and fallen all the way back to 16th in the NASCAR standings. Larson scored a win at Richmond in 2017, but has finished outside the top 10 in eight of his 14 career starts at Richmond Raceway in a Cup car. He's only led laps in one of his last six starts there.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Richmond picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Richmond odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Toyota Owners 400 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Richmond odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Toyota Owners 400 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson's wins last season

2022 Toyota Owners 400 odds

Kyle Larson 6-1
Chase Elliott 15-2
Denny Hamlin 17-2
Kyle Busch 17-2
Martin Truex Jr. 17-2
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Tyler Reddick 15-1
Christopher Bell 17-1
Chase Briscoe 18-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Austin Cindric 30-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Brad Keselowski 40-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Austin Dillon 50-1
Kurt Busch 50-1
Erik Jones 75-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 150-1
Bubba Wallace 150-1
A.J. Allmendinger 150-1
Chris Buescher 250-1
Harrison Burton 250-1
Justin Haley 250-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Greg Biffle 1000-1
Michael McDowell 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 1500-1
Landon Cassill 2000-1
Andy Lally 2500-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1