Pocono 400 odds, picks 2019: NASCAR projection model says Ryan Blaney surprises

The Tricky Triangle at Pocono is one of the most unique layouts in NASCAR. Pocono Raceway has three turns, all with different banking, presenting a huge challenge for drivers at the 2019 Pocono 400, which gets underway at 2 p.m. ET on Sunday. Kyle Busch, who has three wins this year and is coming off a top-three run at Charlotte last week, is the favorite in the Pocono 2019 odds at 3-1. Kevin Harvick (9-2), Martin Truex Jr. (7-1) and Brad Keselowski (7-1) are some of the other top NASCAR at Pocono contenders. Less than 70 points separate the top of the NASCAR standings from fifth place, so the action should be intense on Sunday. And before locking in any 2019 Pocono 400 picks of your own, or entering a NASCAR DFS contest on FanDuel or DraftKings, first be sure to see the NASCAR at Pocono predictions from the proven projection model at SportsLine. 

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account. 

The model is off to a strong start this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the beginning. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It also called Kyle Busch's huge spring win at Bristol and had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two. 

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Pocono Raceway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated the 2019 Pocono 400 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Pocono 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Ryan Blaney, who makes a strong run at taking the checkered flag despite going off at 18-1 NASCAR at Pocono odds. 

Blaney has been impressive in his short career at Pocono. He's finished worse than 12th just once at this track and has led laps in two of his six runs, including his win in 2017. He also finished sixth in this event last year.

He's still looking for his first NASCAR win of 2019, but he does have four top-five performances, and his Penske teammates have three wins already this year, showing that he should have the tools needed to climb the 2019 Pocono 400 leaderboard on Sunday and be in contention at the end. He's a value pick you should be all over. 

And a massive shocker: Kevin Harvick, one of the top Vegas favorites at 9-2, barely cracks the top 5. Oddsmakers may be overvaluing Harvick after he won eight races last year. He's yet to win in 2019, and has just one top-10 finish in his last four points events coming into Pocono.

While he's been impressive at Pocono in recent years, recording six consecutive top-10 finishes, he has never won at this track in 36 career starts. The model indicates that there are far better values to win it all in a loaded NASCAR at Pocono field this weekend. 

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2019 NASCAR at Pocono odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Pocono 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest NASCAR odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard for the 2019 Pocono 400, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Kyle Busch 3-1
Kevin Harvick 9-2
Martin Truex Jr. 7-1
Brad Keselowski 7-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Kyle Larson 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Erik Jones 25-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
William Byron 40-1

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