Quaker State 400 odds, picks 2019: NASCAR model says Denny Hamlin surprises at Kentucky

Just eight races remain before the NASCAR playoffs, meaning the action should be intense at the 2019 Quaker State 400 on Saturday. The ninth edition of NASCAR at Kentucky gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET. A week after dealing with restrictor plates at Daytona, this week's challenge is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with four turns and just over 400 miles to cover in 267 laps. It's the seventh of 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks this year. Martin Truex Jr., three weeks removed from his win at Sonoma and the two-time defending champion at Kentucky, is the 7-2 favorite in the latest 2019 Quaker State 400 odds. Two-time Kentucky winner Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, who enters this race No. 3 in the Cup standings, are next at 5-1 NASCAR at Kentucky odds. Three-time Kentucky winner Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are both going off at 8-1, rounding out the list of the top 2019 NASCAR at Kentucky contenders according to Vegas. Before locking in any 2019 Quaker State 400 picks of your own, you'll want to see the NASCAR at Kentucky predictions from the model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to an extremely strong start in NASCAR this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.'s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350 in Sonoma. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Truex in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's huge win at Pocono.

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Kentucky Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated the 2019 Quaker State 400 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Kentucky 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Denny Hamlin, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 20-1. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Hamlin enters this race ranked fifth in the NASCAR standings thanks in large part to a strong run to begin the season. He finished 11th or better in the first nine races of the year, a span that included a half-dozen top-five finishes and wins at Daytona and the 1.5-mile Texas Motor Speedway.

He hasn't been able to replicate that success recently, but has led at least one lap in his last six starts. And he had a strong run at Chicago, another 1.5-mile track, just two weeks ago that was ultimately derailed by a questionable pit-stop penalty. With a strong track record at Kentucky that includes three top-five finishes in his career, he has all the tools needed to make a run up the 2019 Quaker State 400 leaderboard on Saturday. 

And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., the overall Vegas favorite at 7-2, makes a strong run but falls short of the title. There are far better values in a loaded NASCAR at Kentucky lineup.

Truex has won the last two races at Kentucky Speedway and has four wins this season, but consistency has been a problem for the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. Truex finished 22nd last week at Daytona and has five other runs of 17th or worse this season.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Kentucky odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Quaker State 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Quaker State 400 leaderboard, all from the model that just nailed Truex winning at Sonoma.

Martin Truex Jr. 7-2
Kyle Busch 5-1
Kevin Harvick 5-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Joey Logano 8-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Kyle Larson 12-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Denny Hamlin 20-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1
Erik Jones 25-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
William Byron 40-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Daniel Suarez 60-1

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