Despite their loss Sunday, Barcelona still have designs on a league title, and the work continues Thursday when they host Villarreal in a Spanish La Liga match at Camp Nou. Barca (7-1-1) suffered their first loss of the season in El Clasico, falling 3-1 to arch-rival Real Madrid, and they sit three points behind the reigning champ and league leader. But they will get another shot at Real on their home turf later in the season, so Thursday will be about regaining their momentum. They face a tough task against Villareal (4-3-2), who have the best defensive mark in La Liga and won the most recent meeting between the teams in Barcelona. Still, Barca have dominated the all-time series with the Yellow Submarine, who sit seventh in the table after their 2-0 victory against Osasuna on Monday. La Blaugrana have a strong defense of their own, so this one is expected to be a tightly-contested match.
Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Barcelona are the -225 favorites (risk $225 to win $100) in the latest Barcelona vs. Villarreal odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Villarreal are the +575 underdogs, a draw is priced at +350 and the over/under for total goals is set at 2.5. Before locking in any Villarreal vs. Barcelona picks or Spanish La Liga predictions, make sure you check out what proven SportsLine soccer insider Martin Green has to say.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been stunningly accurate. Green has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he is 6-5 (+1.96 units) on his La Liga picks in 2022. He has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.
Now, Green has broken down the Barcelona vs. Villarreal matchup from every angle and just locked in his picks and La Liga predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Green's picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Villarreal vs. Barcelona:
- Barcelona vs. Villarreal spread: Barcelona -1.5 (+120)
- Barcelona vs. Villarreal over/under: 2.5 goals
- Barcelona vs. Villarreal money line: Barcelona -225, Villarreal +575, Draw +350
- BAR: They are 1-0-2 in their past three Thursday matches
- VIL: They have failed to score in four straight road games
- Barcelona vs. Villarreal picks: See picks here
Why you should back Barcelona
Barca clearly have superior firepower and will be eager to use it after Sunday's disappointment. They had the league's best defense entering that contest, conceding one goal in their first eight matches, so a few missteps against the champs aren't a major concern. They still lead the league in possession at almost 65 percent and get a ton of shots while not conceding many. They have a league-high 163 shots, putting 57 on net (also first), while allowing 73 total (fewest) and 23 on target (second-fewest). They held the ball for 70 percent of the last meeting and allowed four total shots.
La Blaugrana also will be more rested and have depth that Villarreal can't come close to matching. Star striker Robert Lewandowski, who leads the league with nine goals in his first season with the team, has tons of quality support. Captain Sergio Busquets and fellow midfielders Gavi and Pedri keep the ball in Barca's control, while Ousmane Dembele (two goals, two assists) and Raphinha (two goals) can create tons of chances. Barcelona have outscored their home opponents 8-0 in going 2-1-0, and they are 19-6-1 in their past 26 meetings with Villareal, outscoring them 66-27.
Why you should back Villarreal
The Yellow Submarine can bank on confidence from their 2-0 victory at Camp Nou to close out last season. They also come off a strong victory against Osasuna on Monday that saw Arnaut Danjuma notch his first two goals of the season. He led the team with 10 last season, and Villarreal will be looking to find him for counter-attacks against a Barca defense that showed vulnerability on Sunday. Giovani Lo Celso also is a capable finisher up front and has one goal so far. Villarreal have scored 12 goals in their nine matches, and their plus-9 differential is the fourth-best mark in La Liga.
They get plenty of chances to score and don't give up many. Villarreal rank fifth in the league in shots (120), and they have put 40 of those attempts on target, third-most in the league. The key to the team's success has clearly been the defense. Only three teams have allowed fewer than their 29 shots on target, as opponents put it on frame less than 30% of the time. Goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli has been vacuuming up everything that comes near him. He is sixth in saves (26) and leads the league with an 89.7 save percentage and a plus-3.1 mark in post-shot expected goals allowed.
How to make La Liga and Barcelona vs. Villarreal picks
Green has broken down the Barcelona vs. Villarreal match from all sides, and he is leaning Under on the goal total. He also provides two confident best bets and has a full breakdown of the match. He's only sharing his La Liga picks here.
So, who wins Villarreal vs. Barcelona in Thursday's Spanish La Liga matchup? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for Barcelona vs. Villarreal, all from the European soccer expert who has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.
