The first set of Champions League round of 16 games are in the books, a memorable one for Italy as all three representatives began with victory. By contrast, the four English sides in the last 16 earned one draw and three defeats, leaving several of them to collapse down our power rankings. Here is who we view as the most likely sides to win it all in Istanbul this June:
The top tier: Title or bust
These teams should be disappointed with anything less than a semifinal berth and frankly even that might not be enough, such is their talent profile.
1. Real Madrid (+3)
The 15 minutes where Madrid repeatedly fired shots at their own toes did happen, other opponents simply will not be as inviting as Liverpool were at Anfield. Equally, it is pretty clear that even conceding two goals out of the gate, the latter a spectacular error by Thibaut Courtois that would have lived long in the memory if it weren't for everything else, does nothing to set Carlo Ancelotti's side off their stride. It probably just makes it fun for them.
The old guard are creaking back into gear, though terming Luka Modric elderly seems at odds with the burst that carried him through the Liverpool midfield before Karim Benzema netted the fifth. Then there is Vinicius Jr., finding his devastating best at just the right moment. Underwhelming season be damned. This is Real Madrid and the Champions League. Do not doubt for a second that they can win it all. Their opponents don't.
2. Napoli (-1)
The Serie A leaders fall off top spot solely down to Real Madrid's remarkable performance rather than because of anything in their extremely impressive victory over Eintracht Frankfurt. Indeed what might have been most remarkable was how exceedingly ordinary Napoli made a 2-0 road win in the Champions League knockouts look, this was the sort of performance to answer those who doubt whether a team can come from nowhere to win it all in one season.
Luciano Spalletti's side went to a tough ground for visiting sides, bossed their way to nearly 70 percent possession, took 17 shots whilst limiting their opponents to five, four of which were off target, and titled the field entirely in their favor. This is the sort of performance you get from potential winners at this stage of the competition.
3. Manchester City (-1)
Micah Richards knows what a winning Manchester City team looks like. He can't see it in this one. "You can't have that much possession within a game and only score one goal," he said on Wednesday night's UEFA Champions League Post-Match Show on Paramout+. "Something somewhere is not working right and they're not finishing off teams. When Jamie [Carragher] is saying Man City for the league or the Champions League, there's just something not right."
Of course, you can have that much possession and only score once because City are doing that rather frequently, putting up the sort of expected goal (xG) tallies that tell you that they should win this game nine times out of 10. But at the moment they aren't quite. Perhaps that will soon change but Richards is right, things are not clicking quite how Pep Guardiola might have imagined. His spiky attitude suggests he is well aware of that fact.
Serious contenders: If things go right, why not us?
It certainly is not beyond the realm of imagination that any of these teams could be lifting the European Cup in Istanbul come June, though it may require a few fortunate breaks for the tournament to go their way.
4. Bayern Munich (-1)
They may have wobbled in the closing stages at the Parc des Princes but a 1-0 lead from an away leg is about as good a result as Bayern could have expected, enough to make them strong favorites for the tie. Come through that and they have a serious chance of winning the whole thing. Their defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach the following weekend can at least be partly explained by an early red card for Dayot Upamecano, a reminder that their defense is not always the most reliable. Still, with Sadio Mane back in full training, a strong attack could be about to get more deadly.
Dark horses: Unlikely contenders, but contenders all the same
These teams are unlikely champions, but then so were Real Madrid at this time in 2021. It may take a change of circumstances, or a new tactical plan, or simply Karim Benzema having the season of his life, but it's possible. It's certainly not probable, but stranger things have happened.
5. Benfica (+1)
Their arms' length dismissal of an upper midtable Belgian side was never going to tell us much about Benfica that we did not already know but it did at least suggest that very little has changed at the club who bettered Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus in the group stage. They may lack proven superstar talent -- though they produce plenty of it for other clubs -- but Roger Schmidt's side have one valuable weapon in this competition: depth. Against Club Brugge, their attack was boosted by late contributions by Goncalo Guedes and David Neres whilst Lucas Verissimo offers an option if they need to tighten up in games to come.
6. Inter Milan (-1)
It may just be that Inter made hard weather of their win over Porto because that is exactly what the Portuguese side wanted, to take the contest into the trenches and battle for a draw to take back west with them. Still, when the pressure was up, Simone Inzaghi's side eventually delivered, registering 12 of the game's last 13 shots, including the 86th-minute winner from Romelu Lukaku, an ideal impact substitute for Edin Dzeko.
An interesting question the graphic above demonstrates is how much teams will come to zero in on Hakan Calhanoglu, on an island as a playmaker whose task is to spray the ball out to the flanks where his fellow midfielders create overloads and crossing opportunities for those in the middle. It has worked exceedingly well of late in Serie A but how much damage to Inter's build-up play would be done by an opponent sticking a man on the Turkey international?
In the quarterfinal mix
Only in the most unlikely of circumstances could these teams make seriously deep runs in the competition but don't rule them out of winning a round, perhaps even two, before they bid farewell.
7. Borussia Dortmund (+1)
There is plenty of work left to be done in London; the 1-0 win at home to Chelsea offers Borussia Dortmund a platform but Edin Terzic will be acutely aware of the sheer volume of chances his opponents created in that match without success. One would feel more bullish about the German's chances on the road if Karim Adeyemi had not suffered an injury that will rule him out of the second leg, though likely replacement Jamie Bynoe-Gittens will surely be returning to his hometown with a point to prove.
What may ultimately decide this tie for Dortmund is the performance of Gregor Kobel, who has hit an impressive patch of form between the sticks in recent months. If the Stamford Bridge visitors can hold firm at the back the opportunities will present themselves to hit Chelsea on the break. That could well be enough to fire them into the last eight.
8. Paris Saint-Germain (-1)
The upside view, one laid out by many in the aftermath of their 1-0 home loss, was that everything changes with Kylian Mbappe back in the side. It is certainly true that the tie changed when the No. 7 entered the fray but that is precisely PSG's problem. It is not unimaginable that Mbappe might pick up a knock between now and the second leg or early in the contest nor that he might simply have an off day. Few teams have figured out how to stop Mbappe yet but Bayern Munich might. They could even just starve him of service and challenge the other 10 players to break them down.
Considering that grouping may or may not contain Lionel Messi and Neymar it is remarkable how little pressure they can put on an opponent's goal and how much they invite on their own. PSG are going to have a chance in this competition because they have forwards who can turn the tide from nowhere. That is, however, the sum total of what they have going for themselves right now.
9. AC Milan (+4)
Three consecutive clean sheets are an encouraging sign for Stefano Pioli's side, who started the year as one of Europe's worst-performing defenses but who have tightened up at just the right time. Admittedly,Tottenham are not the sternest test that the Champions League could have offered Milan but the Rossoneri did a rather sterling job of keeping their visitors far from the penalty area, as the heatmap below indicates:
Given time we will get a clearer picture of whether Pioli can build an intimidating attack from the 3-4-3 system he has gravitated towards but their single-goal returns against Monza, Tottenham and Torino were more reflective of variable finishing than anything that is necessarily a systemic issue. Get a goal in north London next month and they should be extremely well placed.
10. RB Leipzig (+4)
In all likelihood, Marco Rose's side are going out but a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City gives them a serious chance of getting out of what seemed to be an unwinnable tie. Guardiola's post-match comments betrayed a fear of the contest getting stretched as he said, "In this game, I felt, because I've been in this country and I analyze as much as possible with my people, I need this type of control because otherwise the up-and-downs, when it's open, in this type of situations they are better, German teams are better than us."
If Leipzig can keep the contest close for the first hour then, whether Guardiola likes it or not, the match will become open. In such circumstances, Timo Werner, Dominik Szoboszlai and a fitter Christopher Nkunku could swing the game.
11. Tottenham (-1)
Tottenham's chances of getting back into this competition next year are growing but the odds are that their stay in this season's Champions League will be rather brief. At the top of the pitch, an enormous burden is being placed on Harry Kane and Dejan Kulusevski, the latter of whom was rather struggling to create shooting opportunities for a while before sparking back into life against West Ham. You could build a strong run around those two doing it all themselves if the defense were on form but its anchor, Cristian Romero, seems to be growing more erratic by the game. All that and the midfield options are little more than Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Oliver Skipp and Pape Matar Sarr for the second leg.
11. Porto (--)
The absence of the impressive Otavio will be keenly felt in the second leg of Porto's tie against Inter Milan but Sergio Conceicao will know that his side can create the chances to score against their opponents, at least if Andre Onana is not in the same form as he was at the San Siro.
Pepe, who will be 40 by the time these two meet again, has seen plenty of upsets in the Champions League and sees no cause for alarm in the state of affairs in this tie. "We showed personality and quality to win but Onana was very good in goal," he said. "Inter only had more opportunities after the red card, because until then we controlled the game and had a lot of ball possession and created spaces to attack."
13. Chelsea (-3)
Unlike their rivals in the English capital, Chelsea don't even have a top-tier finisher to bail them out in the tough times. The chances have been coming and in patches -- the first half against West Ham, the second at Dortmund -- they look like they are building some understanding in attack. But does anyone know for certain what their best team is? Graham Potter, who rotated out half his side ahead of a defeat to Southampton, does not appear to.
Bound for the exit
In reality, the greatest achievement of this team might simply have been getting this far in the first place.
14. Liverpool (-6)
For much of this season, Liverpool were perhaps artificially inflated on these power rankings because, while they weren't playing well, the knowledge of what so many of these players had achieved still lingered. Tuesday night brushed that away in a flash. Even if you imagine for a moment that Liverpool somehow knock Real Madrid out, what is there to convince you that they can win this competition? Jurgen Klopp's side have been consistent in only one regard this season, their capacity to get hammered. For the first time in half a decade, they do not look like European champions.
15. Eintracht Frankfurt (--)
Convincingly put to the sword at their own ground, Frankfurt's European adventure has surely only got one last match in it. Oliver Glasner's youthful side will doubtless learn more from their 2-0 loss at Napoli, not least the mistakes they made that so hampered their cause. "They had a very good, 20, 25 minutes and made good use of those," said Glasner. "We also made too many mistakes during that spell. Then it became very tough for us, especially when we were down to ten men."
16. Club Brugge (--)
Given where Club Brugge are right now, the fact that they are two goals down in their round of 16 tie, seems to be something of an irrelevance. Star forward Noa Lang was filmed turning the air blue with abuse of his teammates after a 2-2 draw with crosstown rivals Cercle Brugge while Scott Parker, who joined on New Year's Eve, is serving up the sort of answers of a manager who is facing the axe.
"We've taken a backward step," he said. "A lot of things were unacceptable. We were not good enough on almost every level. We were too soft."
This season may still be a memorable one for their having got this far in the first place but Club Brugge's campaign, in the Champions League and beyond, is petering out.
