All right, we've all had a couple of weeks to recover, but it's once again time to play that Champions League theme song because the second legs of the round of 16 kick off this week. The second legs of the knockout stages always add an interesting new wrinkle to handicapping the matches. You can't just break it down based on the 90 minutes that are about to be played. You have to consider what happened in the first leg, what each team needs to accomplish in the second to move on, and the motivation for every club.
If you're PSG and you've got a 4-1 lead on Barcelona knowing that they need to score at least four goals to beat you and move on, do you take a chance and maybe rest a global superstar who missed the first match due to injury, but might be healthy enough to return? What if you're a team like Porto, and you unexpectedly find yourself with a 2-1 lead going into the second leg. Do you park the bus and hope for the best, or do you stay aggressive?
Those are the kinds of things we have to figure out with each of these matches. And we will. All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Juventus vs. Porto, Tue. 3 p.m. (Paramount+/CBS Sports Network)
As I alluded to in the intro, there's a good chance that Porto's approach to this match will be to park the bus and force Juventus to break down a 10-man defensive setup. Whatever approach Porto take, they're going to bring their best effort defensively. The same can be said of Juventus. Even though the reigning Italian champions are down 2-1 in the series, picking up a goal late in the first leg was huge, and they're still favored to advance. A 1-0 win at home would push Juventus to the next round thanks to the away goals tie-breaker.
Juventus have played well in Serie A since the Porto loss and showed their intent over the weekend. Despite facing Lazio in a battle of Serie A teams still squarely in the mix for Champions League spots, Juventus rested Cristiano Ronaldo. The team wanted to make sure he had fresh legs for this match because when Juventus brought Ronaldo to Turin, it wasn't with the goal of winning Serie A titles. It was to win the Champions League. So, given Porto's situation and Juventus knowing full well a 1-0 win gets the job done, I see a lot of value on the under. Pick: Under 2.5 (+100)
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Borussia Dortmund vs. Sevilla, Tue. 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
This was undoubtedly one of the more exciting matches from the first legs, as Dortmund beat Sevilla 3-2 in Spain. Unfortunately, I picked Sevilla to win the match, but that isn't impacting how I feel about this one. No, what's pushing me in Dortmund's direction here is how Sevilla have played since that loss.
While Sevilla won their next match against Osasuna, it wasn't in impressive fashion. Osasuna is a mediocre team in La Liga, and though Sevilla won 2-0, they did so with an xG of only 0.7. They've lost three straight matches since, and although two of them have come against Barcelona (once in league play, once in the Copa del Rey), the other loss came to an Elche team fighting to avoid relegation on Saturday. Sevilla's attack has seemingly disappeared, and defensively it is being picked apart. Those aren't ideal conditions for a team that has to face Erling Haaland and Dortmund. Dortmund isn't perfect either, and they'll be without Jadon Sancho, but they've been the better of these two teams in recent weeks. Pick: Borussia Dortmund (+119)
PSG vs. Barcelona, Wed. 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
This is something of a punt. I told you to take PSG in the first leg, even though Neymar wasn't playing. I told you that Barcelona were a bunch of bumslayers who had spent all season picking on the weaker teams in La Liga and getting their lunch handed to them by the top teams in the league, as well as the top competition in the Champions League. I was not surprised by PSG's 4-1 win in Barcelona (OK, maybe a little by the score). So why am I now backing Barcelona to at least get a draw in this matchup?
Well, it's mostly because Barcelona are desperate heading into this match. They have no choice but to go all-out to have any prayer of advancing to the next round, and to do that, they need to score at least four goals. And while there's a chance Neymar can play, I'm skeptical he's available for the full 90 minutes, and I'd expect him to come on as a sub if needed. All PSG need to do to advance is not entirely fall apart, so I can see them taking a more cautious approach to this match. One that could allow Barcelona to pick up a win or draw enough of the time to justify this price. Pick: Barcelona Win or Draw (-135)
Liverpool vs. RB Leipzig, Wed. 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
I can hear you from here. "Tom, how in the hell can you pick Liverpool right now? This is a team that's lost six straight at home, and just lost to freaking Fulham over the weekend!" Believe me, I hear you. Liverpool are an absolute mess, and they're well out of the Premier League race and probably won't even qualify for next year's Champions League. But you know what? Liverpool were a mess before the first leg of this series too.
Liverpool had lost three straight, including a 1-0 loss to Brighton, before beating Leipzig 2-0 in the first leg. Leipzig, on the other hand, entered that match having won four straight and five of six. Now Liverpool enter this week's match having lost three straight, including a 1-0 loss to a relegation-threatened Fulham. Leipzig, on the other hand, have won four straight and eight of nine! Any of this sound familiar? I'm not saying Liverpool will run away with this match or that they're light years ahead of Leipzig, but it's still a team with plenty of talent. At this price, we can't afford to pass it up. Pick: Liverpool (+135)
