With the greatest of respect to the endeavour of Aston Villa and Tottenham, at its halfway mark the Premier League is shaping up to be a three way tussle for supremacy. Who exactly the champion might be has rarely felt so unclear as the new year approaches, but it is almost certainly going to be one of three teams: Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester City. The betting markets agree: prior to the Gunners' meeting with, and surprising loss to, West Ham on Wednesday night those three had title odds between +100 and +275. Spurs were at +2200. Similarly, Opta's prediction algorithm gave City a 48 percent chance of winning the title, Arsenal 25 and Liverpool 24.
Over the last 19 games, all three teams have shown they have enough to win the title. As such it is eminently plausible that the January transfer window will pass them by; it is rare that the best of the best feel compelled to act when options are few and far between on the market. Equally each of these teams have weaknesses in their XI or squads, addressing them could propel a side from third to first. Below we assess where these teams need to improve and what they might actually do in the weeks ahead.
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Liverpool's need: A midfield anchor
You only have to take a cursory look back at the summer transfer window to know where Liverpool want to improve. First Moises Caicedo then Romeo Lavia fell out of their clutches and into Chelsea's. Wataru Endo plugged a gap in the squad, but when fit it has been Alexis Mac Allister who has largely been tasked with sitting at the base of Liverpool's midfield. He has done so more effectively than might have been expected, given it is not a role he had great experience with for Argentina or Brighton.
With a more attack-minded midfield than they have had for most of Jurgen Klopp's reign, Liverpool look like a side that can blow their opponents out of the water, but whose hull is altogether more vulnerable than their rivals. So far this season, Arsenal have given up non-penalty shots worth 13.9 xG, City 16.2. At 21.5, Liverpool are a lot more open.
Liverpool still feel like a team that misses the authority and midfield steel that Fabinho exuded at his peak. With the Brazilian dropping into defense, the fullbacks had license to bomb on with two imposing center backs covering the space they vacated. With Trent Alexander-Arnold now deployed in a more central role in possession, the spacing of Liverpool's build up has changed somewhat and yet, still, there is a case to be made for finding a midfielder who can allow them to get into a 3-2-5 system. That is all the more true if the alternative is Andrew Robertson, once back to fitness, inverts into the backline rather than doing what he does best in flying down the touchline.
There is an argument to be made that a player in the mould of Nathan Ake or, on the opposite flank, Ben White is just what the Reds need in the long term, whether as a rival to or eventual replacement for Robertson. Similarly, for all that Liverpool have the second best non-penalty xG in the league (trailing only faltering Newcastle), it is fair to question whether any of their expensively assembled frontline is ready to be the Robin to Mohamed Salah's Batman. Darwin Nunez might be that man -- he averages a gaudy 0.73 npxG and expected assists combined -- but the click does not quite seem to be there. That might simply come with time; right now Liverpool are the one team who could address their XI with one particular player profile and take a great leap forward.
Arsenal's need: More firepower in attack
Mikel Arteta already has two very, very good players in wide positions but one of his young fliers in particular looks to be a little light on jet fuel. Last season Gabriel Martinelli was Arsenal's top scorer with 15, so far this term he has just four. There is little in his performances to suggest the quality has gone, he is just playing like a player with over 1,500 minutes in his legs already. Leandro Trossard appears to be a player better suited to interior spaces, while the player with the natural burst of pace that Arsenal need off the wings is evidently not to Arteta's liking.
Having been hurled on to the defeat against West Ham with a brief to repeat his heroics against Bournemouth, Reiss Nelson is just short of having played 90 Premier League minutes total this season. Sevilla and Wolves would like to take him on loan but the 24-year-old is minded to stay and fight for his place this season, according to CBS Sports sources. That would suggest Arsenal are unlikely to pick up a winger this month.
That might be what Arsenal need but at the time of writing it is more likely that they end up plugging short term gaps elsewhere. Jurrien Timber's injury and those suffered by Takehiro Tomiyasu and Thomas Partey, both of whom will also be at continental competitions in the new year, has added pressure to defensive numbers, and the club are exploring that particular market with vigor. Interest in 17-year-old center back Jorrel Hato has been widely documented, but he is not the only Ajax prospect they have been tracking. Arsenal have also been scouting Devyne Rensch, largely used as a right back this season but capable of playing across the defense. They are not his only admirers; Liverpool and Manchester United are among the other interested parties. Given the shortfall in numbers Jakub Kiwior could well be called on to play a significant role in the weeks ahead. CBS Sports sources rate it as extremely unlikely that Arsenal would seriously consider interest from AC Milan in his services.
The thirst for a striker will only grow after their futile pursuit of a goal in defeat to West Ham, prior to that game there had been no indication the Gunners would test Brentford's plans to keep hold of Ivan Toney. Victor Osimhen of Napoli, Inter's Lautaro Martinez and Bayer Leverkusen's Victor Boniface are also on their radar, though none of that trio are expected to be available in the midseason window. That rather expresses the bind they find themselves in. In the long term Arsenal might need that elite scorer that Gabriel Jesus has not quite proven to be. Best of luck getting that in January.
Manchester City's need: Strength in depth
Where their rivals could do with honing in the XI and its fringes, City's priority in January is more wide-ranging but easily addressable. They just need bodies. Pep Guardiola has always favored running with a small squad, but after the departures of, in particular, Ilkay Gundogan, Riyad Mahrez and Cole Palmer, this is a group that looked particularly vulnerable to the sort of injuries that have hit Kevin De Bruyne. A lot is being asked of Jack Grealish, Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku, who missed most of December with a muscle issue.
It does not always help that what depth City have is not always the sort of player Guardiola is keen to use. Kalvin Phillips, wanted by Newcastle on loan in January, and Juventus on a more permanent move, has played so few minutes that Rodri may as well be City's only anchoring midfielder. No one else can in the squad can do what John Stones does, stepping out of defense into midfield, as well as he does. The 29-year-old suffered an ankle injury in only his fifth start of the season and his status remains murky. In a sky-blue shirt, Matheus Nunes has looked like what he did at Wolves, not a player obviously ready to fit into the world champion's squad. He has just five Premier League starts this season, Mateo Kovacic seven, only two of which have come since September as he battles injuries.
Bringing back Kevin De Bruyne solves a lot of City's issues, at least if he is the player he was before his injury at the start of the season. Suddenly Julian Alvarez offers wing depth as might Bernardo Silva, so imperious this year in a deeper role. It would, however, be a brave club that plans around the availability of the Belgian, who has suffered several serious hamstring injuries, one of which left his muscle "like a wet kitchen towel," as he put it. Remove him from the equation and City look numerically light in attack.
City have already made moves to strengthen their squad for the long term, and are understood to be close to a $27.8 million deal for River Plate's Claudio Echeverri. The South American market has offered rich pickings for Guardiola in recent years, most notably forwards Gabriel Jesus and Alvarez, but the Argentina Under-17 captain is not expected to spend another year back in his homeland before making the switch to the Etihad Stadium. For now there are few indications that the first team numbers will swell in the coming weeks. What Guardiola wants is not easy to find but even one player who can approximate the shot output of Gundogan or Mahrez would be an almighty salve.
At full tilt there might be no better team than City, at home and abroad. This season has shown what they are when numbers are light, a side that could still win the league but who are altogether more vulnerable than they were in the spring.
