It's an all-European battle to see who advances to the 2018 World Cup semifinals on Saturday at 10 a.m. ET when Sweden and England renew their rivalry at Russia 2018 in a win-or-go home match at Samara Arena. Sportsbooks have England listed at -115 to win (bet $115 to win $100), while Sweden is +375 (risk $100 to win $375). A draw in regulation is +235 and the over-under on total goals scored is 2. England is 4-1 to win the entire tournament after opening at 25-1, while Sweden is listed at 25-1 World Cup odds to win it all, down sharply from an open of 80-1.
Before you lock in your 2018 World Cup picks, you need to see what European football expert David Sumpter has to say. Sumpter is an applied mathematician who wrote "Soccermatics," the book that explains how math works inside the sport. Along with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.
The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In nearly three seasons since its inception, the Soccerbot is up an incredible 1,800 percent on bookmakers' closing odds.
It is absolutely destroying the 2018 World Cup knockout stage. It correctly predicted draws in regulation for Spain-Russia (+280), Croatia-Denmark (+225) and England-Colombia (+215) and was all over France beating Uruguay in regulation to reach the semifinals, not to mention Brazil and Belgium cruising in their Round of 16 matchups. Earlier, the model nailed draws for Argentina-Iceland (+385) and Brazil-Switzerland (+360) and predicted Iran upsetting Morocco at +275, just to name a few of its big calls. Anyone who has followed it is way, way up.
Now, the Soccerbot has digested the film, crunched the numbers and broken down every single player on England and Sweden. The model is leaning towards the Under, and it also has released a very strong money-line pick, which it's sharing over at SportsLine.
The model knows England advanced past Colombia in the Round of 16 in a thrilling penalty shootout. It was the first time England has won a penalty shootout at a major tournament since 1996, when The Three Lions defeated Spain at the European Championships.
England went up 1-0 in the second half against Colombia before conceding a late goal to force extra time. England's goal was scored by its captain, Harry Kane, who has netted six goals in his first three World Cup appearances for England. Kane enters Saturday's showdown against Sweden in top goal-scoring form and the 1-7 favorite for the 2018 Golden Boot. He has scored 14 goals in 10 appearances for England under current manager Gareth Southgate.
The model also knows Sweden prevailed over Switzerland in the Round of 16 after Emil Forsberg scored in the 66th minute to secure Sweden's quarterfinal spot. With that victory, Sweden clinched its first quarterfinal berth at a World Cup since 1994.
Sweden enters Saturday's showdown having won back-to-back World Cup matches for the first time since 1958, when the Swedes won consecutive games leading up to the final as the host nation. They've been able to string together consecutive victories thanks to their strong defensive play, as Sweden has kept a clean sheet in three of its four games at the World Cup 2018.
So which hungry nation wins Saturday? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong Sweden-England money-line pick, all from a European football expert whose powerful model is up 1,800 percent in less than three years.
