The 2018 World Cup semifinals feature football powerhouses like England, France, and Belgium. There's also a big underdog in Croatia in the mix. The action gets underway on Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET. Sportsbooks have updated their 2018 World Cup odds with four teams left, and everyone from Average Joes to professional bettors will lay down wagers. France is the favorite at 2-1 World Cup odds, followed closely by Belgium at 11-4, England at 5-2 and Croatia at 4-1. Before you make your 2018 World Cup picks in what has been an unpredictable tournament, you'll want to check out what European football expert David Sumpter has to say.
Sumpter is an applied mathematician who wrote "Soccermatics," the book that shows how math works inside the game. Together with experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.
The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In the 2.5 seasons since it was born, the Soccerbot is up 1,800 percent on bookmakers' closing odds.
The Soccerbot has been dialed-in during the World Cup knockout stage. It correctly predicted draws in regulation for Spain-Russia (+280), Croatia-Denmark (+225) and England-Colombia (+215) and was all over France beating Uruguay in regulation to reach the semifinals, not to mention Brazil and Belgium cruising in their Round of 16 matchups.
Earlier, the model nailed draws for Argentina-Iceland (+385) and Brazil-Switzerland (+360) and predicted Iran upsetting Morocco at +275, just to name a few of its big calls. Anyone who has followed it is way, way up.
Now, with sportsbooks updating their 2018 World Cup odds heading into the semifinals, Sumpter's model has revealed every country's exact probability of winning it all. And you can find out who to target and who to fade only at SportsLine.
One shocker: France, the 2018 World Cup favorite at 2-1, has just a 26.7 percent chance of winning it all, less than the odds imply.
The French have made it to the World Cup final just twice -- once in 1998 when they won it all as the host nation and again in 2006. And France has an extremely tough matchup against Belgium in the semifinals, a nation that just knocked off Brazil in the quarterfinals.
France has a pair of big-time players in Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann on its side, but Belgium counters with a balanced and star-studded roster that includes Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard. France's defense was strong against a Uruguayan squad that was missing Edison Cavani, but gave up three goals to Argentina in the Round of 16.
Even though France needs just one victory to reach the 2018 World Cup final, the model sees too many potential pitfalls for this squad. There are far better values available at Russia 2018.
The model has also identified a heavy favorite that you need to avoid like the plague. Backing this team could lead to a disastrous ending to your 2018 World Cup picks.
So which team wins the 2018 World Cup? And which long shots can go all the way? Check out the latest 2018 World Cup odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see which teams have the best chance to win the 2018 World Cup, all from a European football expert whose model returned an 1,800 percent profit on the bookmakers' closing odds.
France 2-1
Belgium 11-4
England 5-2
Croatia 4-1
