The WNBA Finals tip off this Sunday as the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces host the second-seeded New York Liberty in a best-of-five series. To call the series star-studded might be an understatement. As it stands, the Aces-Liberty matchup features the WNBA MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Players of the Year, and three All-Defensive team players. And that's just counting the 2023 tally.
Three WNBA analysts hopped to hash out key players, key stats and our favorite FanDuel odds ahead of the 2023 WNBA Finals.
WNBA Finals Roundtable
Erica L. Ayala: So we have the matchup that everyone, including the WNBA front office, dreamed up and hoped for. But let's talk a little bit about how each team got here. Terrika, what stands out to you regarding how the Aces were able to get to another WNBA Finals?
Terrika Foster-Brasby: One relying on their defense. They were the number one defense in the league all season long, but A'ja stepped her game up to a whole new level from a defensive standpoint. It's a reason that she was Defensive Player of the Year, and the team followed suit with that. They made it very difficult for anyone and everyone else to find success on the offensive end.
Erica: Okay, now the same question but for the New York Liberty.
Terrika: I will give you one name, Jonquel Jones. Jonquel Jones is what changed. She was the person who really helped me to find it easy to criticize the Liberty team early in the season because she had not truly been a player that was involved. She was still battling a foot injury.
After the All-Star Break is where Jonquel Jones started to remember she's a former MVP of the league herself, and you could really see the difference in this team, most notably on the boards. She was a machine when it came to rebounding and recorded five consecutive games with ten or more boards after the All-Star break. She put the Liberty in a position to really dominate the second half of the season. They only accumulated three losses in the second half of the season, one at the hands of Las Vegas.
The only person I would put after that would be Betnijah Laney. And I know that everyone wants to talk about Stewie (Breanna Stewart). And Stewie is great, and Stewie is phenomenal. But there were moments when she struggled a bit with her shooting down the stretch.
Calvin Wetzel: Breanna Stewart probably had the worst shooting stretch of her career in the first four or five games of this playoffs. She's averaging her second-lowest points per game (19.8) and field goal percentage (35.6%) this playoffs. And, like I said, it was they were able to still get by, but against the Aces, they're really going to need her to be knocking down shots, which is something that even when she had it going in the regular season, she still kind of struggled against the Aces.
We have seen some good matchups between her and A'ja last year in the playoffs. I remember that one where they both went off and it was a great battle between the Seattle Storm and the Aces. We're going to need to see that again. The Aces are just a whole new beast, and New York will need everyone clicking.
Erica: I love that you brought up what should be an instant classic, the 2022 WNBA Semifinals between the Aces and the Storm last year. That was phenomenal, chef's kiss. All right, let's go to some key players. Who are some players you think will be key for the Aces as they take on the Liberty in the WNBA Finals?
Terrika: One player who we haven't spoken about enough but would probably be what I would consider an X-factor is Kiah Stokes. Stokes is not a scorer. She doesn't really pride herself on scoring. But here's the thing: Riquna Williams was someone who was really key for this team last season. Honestly, she was the reason that they won the championship, and now they don't have her.
Depth is something that I think we've always questioned with this Las Vegas team. And that window of depth got even smaller when Candace Parker became unavailable, and then Riquna was in some trouble where she ended up being dismissed from the team. So that leaves Kiah. She will have to find more to her game than just being a defensive anchor alongside A'ja Wilson. We have to see if she's able to put the ball in the basket more. They're gonna want and need that additional scoring.
Calvin: I definitely agree with Kiah Stokes being an X-factor. I also was going to say, though, Jackie Young, because in these matchups between these teams, we've seen Sabrina Ionescu be the one that usually starts out guarding Jackie, and that's probably the Aces' advantage on that side of the ball. Jackie has been able to use her size and athleticism to beat Sabrina and get to the rim and maybe some post-ups, too.
Especially because I think the Liberty have done a pretty good job on A'ja Wilson this year. Obviously, A'ja is on another planet and averaging 25.8 points and 11.2 rebounds in the playoffs, but I think we could see Jackie step up like she was at the beginning of the season and drop 20-plus points consistently in this series.
Erica: Okay, now let's talk about the sportsbook. Let's just start with game one. The Aces are the favorite in game one. Calvin, can you break down what FanDuel says here for Game 1?
Calvin: Yeah, so FanDuel has the Aces favored by 4.5 points. Basically, they think the Aces are a point to better on a neutral court and then a few more points because they're at home, and so they get a home-court advantage. Then, they have the total set at 172.5 over-under. 172.5 total points, which is pretty high for a WNBA game.
Terrika: It seems like it will be a lot. But I feel like the way that New York has been offensively shooting the ball late in games – because they've made me nervous early in games. In this semifinal matchup against Connecticut, they were playing against one of the best defenses in the league. They were able to find their rhythm later in the game. If Sabrina can get it going early, if JJ is working the glass early on into the matchup, I think it's very possible that we can have 170.
Erica: Calvin, there were other over/under numbers that stood out to me, just kind of knowing how these two teams play, and that was rebounds. We've already talked about Jonquel Jones. I want to talk about her line there, as well as assists. We haven't really talked about the "point god," Chelsea Gray, and we also haven't talked about Courtney Vandersloot. So, I'm curious to get your thoughts.
Calvin: I mean, 11.5 is a really high number, but, honestly, I think we'll see her most games in this series clear 12 rebounds just because of the matchup. Against the Aces, who don't have any size off the bench to speak, Parker is just two bigs in the starting lineup.
Regarding Courtney Vandersloot and Chelsea Gray in assists, I'd probably take the over on both of those as well. Courtney Vandersloot has this weird trend this year where she averages more assists on the road, which is pretty opposite of most people. She's averaged 8.9 this on the road and 7.2 at home, so I definitely think that her being on the road for whatever reason is gonna lean towards an over 7.5 as well. And then Chelsea Gray at 6.5. She's, like you said, the "point god," and we know she steps up in big moments.
Terrika: I completely agree with Calvin regarding taking the over on Jonquel. Last couple of matchups, she had ten rebounds and 14 rebounds against Las Vegas earlier in the season. So, her getting over 11.5 is probably a lock.
What I would be a little bit cautious with is the Chelsea Gray for 6.5 assists. And it's absolutely possible that she could do it. If I was betting, I would take this bet. But it does come with risk.
Why? This New York team has a way of closing the hole for A'ja Wilson. That's who she dishes the ball to a lot to get some of those assists. So, it's a bit of a risk going with Chelsea 6.5 in Game 1.
I do take the over with Courtney Vandersloot because what has made this New York team so good? They've been so balanced in their scoring attack over the last couple of games. There have been so many different players with double-digit scoring over the last couple of games that Courtney Vandersloot has had a field day choosing which player she really wants to distribute the ball to. So I'm taking the over for sure on Courtney Vandersloot with 7.5, but I'm nervous about Chelsea Gray.
Erica: Okay, New York takes Game 1 if ...
Terrika: New York wins if they are able to get at least 18 points from Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Sabrina Ionescu. Laney, Johannes, Vandersloot, or Kayla Thorton hitting that number, too. That's just a plus. But if they get key points out of their core three, I think York can get a Game 1 win.
Calvin: New York wins if Breanna Stewart can shoot the ball well. I'll say shoot at least 50% from the field. Because what they've been getting out of Jonquel Jones, as we talked about, is incredible. And if they can continue to get that and also have Breanna Stewart shooting the way that we know she's capable of – stretching the floor with that length, finishing at the rim, and hitting those turnarounds that are just impossible to guard – then I think New York's in business.
Erica: Las Vegas wins Game 1 if ...
Calvin: We've talked about it throughout this whole time. They take Game 1 if they can keep Jonquel Jones off the glass. If they can keep her under that 11.5 rebound number that we talked about and possibly even under 10, I definitely think they win.
That's going to be the biggest advantage and the biggest way that New York can really punish them, and if they can neutralize that, they're going to have a lot of advantages in other areas, like Jackie and Kelsey Plum knocking down shots.
Erica: Finally, what are your series predictions? I was asked the other day and instinctively said the Las Vegas Aces in 4. If we go five games, I'm picking the New York Liberty.
Terrika: I think it is Aces in five, and I actually think the Aces will lose Game 1. They've got a lot of pressure. New York literally has nothing to lose. They've had a hell of a season, no matter how you look at it. And yeah, they're hungry, and they want to win, but I think it's gonna come down to experience. New York has players that have won championships, but the difference to me is that this Las Vegas team has won a championship together. So, although I do give the Liberty Game 1, ultimately, the Aces will win it in five.
Calvin: I'm going with the Liberty in five games, which I realize means to have to win that Game 5 on the road, but I think they get it done. New York was playing a lot better down the stretch. If you had asked me this at the All-Star break, I would have very clearly said the Aces. But, at this point, I think New York has the advantage on the glass, and they've been able to get to this point even without Breanna Stewart shooting well.
