The Ole Miss Rebels set a school record in 2021, concluding the regular season with 10 victories for the first time after defeating Mississippi State 31-21 in their annual Egg Bowl matchup. It was the fourth straight win and seventh in eight games for the Rebels, who have posted 10 overall triumphs seven times in their history -- most recently in 2015. Eighth-ranked Ole Miss (10-2) can post its first campaign with 11 total victories when it takes on the No. 7 Baylor Bears (11-2) in the 2022 Sugar Bowl on Saturday.

Kickoff at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans is set for 8:45 p.m. ET. The Rebels are one-point favorites in the latest Ole Miss vs. Baylor odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is up to 58 after opening at 54.5. Before locking in any Baylor vs. Ole Miss picks or Sugar Bowl 2022 predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also entered the third week of the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-30 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Ole Miss vs. Baylor, and just locked in its Sugar Bowl 2022 picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for Baylor vs. Ole Miss: 

  • Ole Miss vs. Baylor spread: Rebels -1
  • Ole Miss vs. Baylor over-under: 58 points 
  • Ole Miss vs. Baylor money line: Rebels -115, Bears -105
  • MISS: The Rebels are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight bowl games 
  • BAY: The Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall contests
Featured Game | Ole Miss Rebels vs. Baylor Bears

Why Ole Miss can cover

The Rebels are fourth in the nation in total offense (506.7 yards) and possess one of the best ground attacks, ranking ninth with an average of 224.3 yards per game. They are the only team in the country with four players who have gained at least 500 yards on the ground and are led by Jerrion Ealy, who has recorded 703 on 121 carries. Fellow junior Snoop Conner is second with 605 yards and leads Ole Miss with 13 rushing touchdowns, giving him 26 for his career -- the third-most in school history.

Junior quarterback Matt Corral has run for 547 yards and 11 TDs, giving the Rebels two players with 10 or more in a season for the first time. Ole Miss has done a superb job of getting to opposing signal-callers this season as it is tied for eighth in the country with 40 sacks. Senior defensive lineman Sam Williams is tied for fifth nationally with 12.5 sacks, which is a modern-era school record for a single season.

Why Baylor can cover

The Bears have tied the school mark for most wins against ranked teams in a season as they are one of four teams in the nation with four such victories. They have been held under 20 points just once this year and are 26th in the nation with an average of 214.7 rushing yards while ranking 10th with a total of 2,791. Senior Abram Smith is eighth in the country as he has recorded the 15th 1,000-yard season in school history with 1,429.

Smith, who switched from running back to linebacker during the 2019 season before returning to the backfield for this year, is 119 yards away from breaking the program's single-season rushing mark set in 2011 by Terrance Ganaway. Senior wideout Tyquan Thornton leads Baylor with 61 receptions and nine touchdown catches as he enters Saturday needing 54 yards to reach 1,000 for the first time. The Bears have been strong on the other side of the ball as well, ranking 16th in the country against the run (116.8 yards) while leading the Big 12 with 16 interceptions. 

How to make Ole Miss vs. Baylor picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 51 combined points. It also has generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's Sugar Bowl pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Baylor vs. Ole Miss in the 2022 Sugar Bowl? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Ole Miss vs. Baylor spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up almost $3,600 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.