Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds, line: 2018 college football picks, predictions from model on 7-3 roll

A big-time SEC matchup is on tap at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on CBS as the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide host the No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs. At 9-0, Alabama solidified its No. 1 College Football Playoff position with a 29-0 thrashing of formerly third-ranked LSU, 29-0. Mississippi State ran roughshod over Louisiana Tech, 45-3, last week to improve to 6-3. The Crimson Tide opened as 24-point favorites and now are laying 21.5. The Over-Under has inched down from 51.5 to 51 in the latest Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds. Before you make any Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for in this SEC battle. 

The advanced computer model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. In the past three years, this proprietary model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors.

The model made some huge calls in Week 10, including the biggest game of the season, recommending the Crimson Tide against the spread (-14), on the money line (-588) and hitting the under in Alabama's destruction of LSU. It also nailed its top-rated selection on Auburn (-3.5) over Texas A&M, helping the model finish the weekend on a strong 7-3 run on all top-rated picks. 

Now, the model has crunched the numbers for Alabama vs. Mississippi State. We can tell you it's leaning under, but it has also generated a strong point-spread pick that hits in more than 65 percent of simulations. That pick is only available at SportsLine.

The model has factored in that Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is playing at a higher level than just about everyone else. He's near the top nationally with 27 touchdown passes and -- even more incredibly -- has tossed just one pick on the season. 

Last Saturday against the Tigers, the sophomore threw for 295 yards and two TDs while running another in from 44 yards out that broke LSU's spirit. Tagovailoa's top wideouts, Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle, have combined for nearly 1,400 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns.

But just because Alabama has been rolling, doesn't mean the Tide will cover this number against the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is a nightmare for opposing defenses, especially on the ground. He has thrown for 1,252 yards and 10 touchdowns while rushing for another 839 and nine scores. 

The 6-foot-5 senior threw for 243 yards and four touchdowns against Louisiana Tech and ran for another 107 yards. His accuracy his come and gone this year, but he is the type of mobile quarterback that has given Alabama issues at times during its dominant run. Running back Kylin Hill, meanwhile, averages 6.6 yards per carry for a Bulldogs team averaging a whopping 231 rushing yards per game.

Who wins Mississippi State vs. Alabama? And which side covers in more than 65 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Saturday's SEC showdown you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that's up more than $4,200 over the past three years.

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